4.9.21 · D5Probability Theory & Statistics

Question bank — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

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True or false — justify

With and unknown , the Central Limit Theorem guarantees I can use a z-test.
False. The CLT concerns the shape of becoming Normal, but the z-test also needs a known in the denominator. With unknown and small the estimated injects extra noise, so Student's t-distribution is required.
A large p-value proves the null hypothesis is true.
False. A large p-value means the data are consistent with — you failed to find evidence against it. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence; many other hypotheses are also consistent.
As the sample size , the t-statistic and the z-statistic become the same thing.
True. As grows, , so the denominator stops being noisy and the fatter tails of Student's t-distribution shrink until it coincides with the standard Normal Distribution.
The chi-squared goodness-of-fit statistic can be negative if the model overpredicts a category.
False. Each term is : the numerator is squared and , so every term is and the sum can never be negative. Over- and under-prediction both add positively.
In an F-test we always place the larger sample variance on top.
True (by convention). Putting the larger on top forces , so we only ever consult the upper tail of the F-distribution, which is what the standard critical-value tables list.
Doubling the sample size halves the standard error.
False. , so it shrinks with , not . Doubling multiplies SE by ; you need to quadruple to halve the SE.
Bessel's correction (dividing by ) makes the sample standard deviation an unbiased estimate of .
Partly false. Bessel's Correction makes the variance unbiased (). Because the square root is a nonlinear function, itself is still slightly biased — but is the quantity the correction is designed for.
The F-statistic and the chi-squared statistic are unrelated.
False. Each sample variance is (up to scale) a divided by its degrees of freedom; an is by definition the ratio of two independent such quantities. The F-test is literally "two chi-squareds racing."

Spot the error

"My , which is a big difference, so I reject ."
The raw difference is meaningless until compared to spread. You must divide by the standard error to get "how many SEs away"; could be enormous or trivial depending on .
"I ran a chi-squared GOF with cells expecting , all fine."
The approximation relies on each cell being roughly Normal, which needs . Tiny expected counts inflate the statistic and give false rejections; pool small categories first.
"I fit two parameters from my data, and my GOF has cells, so ."
Every parameter estimated from the same data costs a degree of freedom: . Forgetting the makes your critical value too large and biases you toward failing to reject. See Degrees of Freedom.
"I got and compared it to ."
The critical value is from the standard Normal Distribution, not the . For the two-sided critical value is ; using ignores the fatter tails and rejects too readily.
"Failing to reject means I made no error."
Failing to reject can still be a Type II error — missing a real effect because the sample was too small or noisy. See Type I and Type II Errors. Non-rejection is not a guarantee of correctness.
"To be safe I set so I rarely miss real effects."
is the Type I error rate — the chance of rejecting a true . Setting means you'd wrongly reject half the time. Lowering the miss rate (Type II) is done by increasing or effect size, not by inflating .
"I used in the denominator."
The variance of the mean is , not . Averaging independent values shrinks the variance by a factor , giving . Using hugely overstates the noise.

Why questions

Why do we divide by the noise scale instead of just reporting the raw difference?
Dividing standardizes the difference into "number of standard errors," a unitless quantity comparable across problems and directly readable off a known reference distribution. See Hypothesis Testing.
Why does an unknown force fatter tails?
Replacing by the estimate adds a second source of randomness (the denominator now wobbles too). More ways to land far from centre means more probability in the tails — exactly Student's t-distribution.
Why divide each chi-squared cell by ?
For counts, a cell is roughly Poisson with mean , so its variance is also . Dividing by turns into a standardized -like quantity; squaring and summing gives a Chi-squared Distribution.
Why does the constraint cost exactly one degree of freedom?
Once you know of the deviations, the last one is forced by the sum-to-zero rule. Only deviations are free to vary, so in a one-sample .
Why does the F-test need two degrees of freedom rather than one?
An is a ratio of two independent variance estimates, each with its own noisiness. Both and shape how far the ratio can wander from 1 by luck. See F-distribution.
Why is the reference distribution always "under "?
We need a fixed yardstick for "what luck alone produces." Assuming gives the statistic a known distribution; we then ask how extreme our observed value is against that yardstick to compute the p-value.
Why does the chi-squared GOF lose one degree of freedom even with zero fitted parameters?
The counts are tied by : fix the first cells and the last is determined. That single constraint removes one of the degrees of freedom, giving .

Edge cases

What happens to the t-test if the population is heavily skewed and is small?
The -test assumes is roughly Normal. With small the Central Limit Theorem hasn't "kicked in," so heavy skew breaks the reference distribution and the p-value is untrustworthy; consider a larger or a nonparametric test.
If two sample variances are exactly equal, what is and does it ever hit the tail?
, sitting at the centre of the F-distribution — the least surprising value possible. You would never reject there; equal spreads are exactly what predicts.
What is the z-statistic when the sample mean lands exactly on the claimed ?
. Zero standard errors away means perfect agreement with and the largest possible p-value; there is no evidence against the claim.
As degrees of freedom , what does the t-distribution converge to?
It converges to the standard Normal Distribution . The fatter tails, caused by the noisy , vanish as with growing sample size.
What if a chi-squared cell has exactly?
That cell contributes — zero surprise. Perfectly matched cells add nothing to the statistic, which is why only mismatches build up the total.
Can the F-test detect a difference in means between two groups?
No — the two-variance F-test compares spreads (), not centres. Comparing several means uses the F-statistic differently, inside ANOVA; the two-variance test is blind to a shift in mean.
What does it mean for the p-value to equal exactly ?
You are on the boundary: the observed statistic sits exactly at the critical value. By the usual "reject if p-value " rule you would not reject; conventions vary, but this borderline signals the evidence is precisely at the chosen threshold.
If is genuinely known but is tiny (say ), is the z-test valid?
Only if the underlying population is itself Normal. With known the denominator is fixed, but for small the CLT can't rescue a non-Normal ; Normality of the raw data is then essential.

Recall One-line self-test

Cover every answer above, run the list top to bottom, and mark any item where your reasoning (not just the verdict) was shaky. Those are your revision targets for Hypothesis Testing.