4.9.21 · D1Probability Theory & Statistics

Foundations — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

1,819 words8 min readBack to topic

Before you can read the parent note comfortably, you need to own every symbol it throws at you. This page builds each one from nothing: what it means in plain words, what picture it draws, and why the topic can't live without it. Read top to bottom — each block uses only symbols defined above it.


1. Data, samples, and the humble subscript

Picture a row of dots on a number line — each dot is one , and there are of them.

Figure — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

2. The average and the true mean

The bent-E symbol (capital Greek sigma) just says "add them all up." The underneath and on top mean "let run from to ." So is shorthand for — nothing more.

Figure — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

3. Spread: variance , standard deviation , and their sample cousins

A middle isn't enough — we need to know how wobbly the data is around that middle.

Why squared distances and not plain distances? Plain distances cancel out — the ones above the mean exactly kill the ones below (their sum is always zero). Squaring stops that cancellation, and it happens to be the spread measure that all the reference distributions are built around.

Why divide by and not ? This is Bessel's Correction. We measure distances from , but was pulled toward our own data, so those distances come out a touch too small. Dividing by the smaller number nudges the answer up to compensate. The parent note needs this the moment is unknown.

Figure — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

4. Standard error — the wobble of the average

Here is the pivot that makes the z-test and t-test work.

Why and not ? Averaging lets errors partly cancel, but randomly, so the shrinkage grows like the square root of how many you averaged, not linearly. This is the single most important number-fact the topic uses: quadruple your data, halve the wobble of the average.


5. The bell curve: and the family of reference shapes

The topic then meets three other reference shapes, each a distortion of the bell for a specific job:

  • Student's t-distribution — a bell with fatter tails, used when we had to estimate the spread.
  • Chi-squared Distribution — a right-skewed curve for adding up squared surprises of counts.
  • F-distribution — a curve for a ratio of two spreads.

You don't need their formulas yet — just know each is a "what does luck alone do?" curve.

Figure — z-test, t-test, chi-squared goodness of fit, F-test

6. The standardizing move:

This ratio is the template the parent note repeats four times. Everything else is choosing the right denominator and the right reference curve.


7. Greek letters and Yes/No machinery


Prerequisite map

sample x1..xn and size n

sample mean x-bar

spread s2 and s

standard error SE

standardize into Z score

reference bell curve

t chi-squared F curves

degrees of freedom nu

p-value vs alpha decision

the four tests


Equipment checklist

Test yourself — cover the right side and answer out loud.

What does mean in plain words?
Add up all the measurements from the first to the -th.
Difference between and ?
is the unknown true population mean; is the average of your actual sample, a guess at .
Why square the deviations in variance?
Plain deviations from the mean sum to zero and cancel; squaring keeps them positive and matches the reference curves.
Why divide by instead of for ?
Deviations are taken from (pulled toward the data), so they run small; (Bessel's correction) nudges the estimate up.
Formula and meaning of standard error?
— how much the sample mean wobbles; smaller than by a factor .
Why and not in the shrinkage?
Random errors partly cancel; the leftover wobble shrinks like the square root of how many you averaged.
What does the score measure?
How many standard errors the measured gap is — signal divided by noise, unit-free.
What is ?
The standard normal: a bell curve centred at with spread .
What does represent?
The pre-chosen significance level — your tolerated chance of a false alarm (rejecting a true ).
What does a small p-value tell you?
A gap this extreme is unlikely under , so the "nothing special" story is hard to believe.
What is for?
Degrees of freedom — it selects which specific , , or curve applies.