4.9.8 · D3Probability Theory & Statistics

Worked examples — Common continuous distributions — Uniform, Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Beta

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This page is the drill floor for Common continuous distributions — Uniform, Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Beta. The parent note gave you the stories and the formulas. Here we hit every case class each distribution can throw at you, one worked example per cell, so no exam scenario is new.

Before any symbol appears, remember the plain-word meanings we lean on:

  • = the density: how much probability is packed near the value (like how thick the paint is at each point). It is not a probability itself — you must integrate (add up a strip) to get a probability.
  • = the CDF: the total probability piled up to the left of . Picture sweeping a broom from far left to and reading how much you've swept.
  • = the mean = balance point of the density.
  • = the standard deviation = typical distance from the balance point; = variance = average squared distance.
  • = a rate = events per unit time (bigger = events come faster).

The scenario matrix

Every problem in this topic is one of these cells. Each worked example below is tagged with the cell it fills.

# Case class What makes it tricky Example that covers it
C1 Uniform: interval probability + CDF reading a slice of a flat density Ex 1
C2 Uniform: degenerate / zero-width limit variance , density blows up Ex 2
C3 Exponential: survival & memorylessness conditional "already waited" trap Ex 3
C4 Exponential: limiting rate and mean vs Ex 4
C5 Normal: both tails, negative , symmetry sign of , using Ex 5
C6 Normal: inverse (given probability, find ) reading backwards; quantiles Ex 6
C7 Gamma: integer = sum of exponentials mean/var add; sanity vs Exp Ex 7
C8 Beta: skew, and the = Uniform edge shape flips; degenerate to flat Ex 8
C9 Real-world word problem mixing two distributions translating English → parameters Ex 9
C10 Exam twist: standardizing with wrong-looking numbers plug not ; combine ranges Ex 10

Ex 1 — Uniform interval probability (Cell C1)

Forecast: guess first — is bigger or smaller than one half?

Figure — Common continuous distributions — Uniform, Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Beta

What the figure shows: a warm-paper plot with the flat teal density drawn as a rectangle from to ; the strip from to is filled burnt-orange, labelled "width = 3", "height = 1/6", and "area = 3 × 1/6 = 1/2". The picture makes clear that a uniform probability is just the area of a sub-rectangle.

  1. Height of the flat density. The density is a constant so the total area (a rectangle of width ) equals : . Why this step? A probability density must enclose area — that's the one law all densities obey.
  2. Slice probability = area of a sub-rectangle. Look at the shaded strip in the figure from to : width , height , so . Why this step? For a flat density, probability is literally width height — no calculus needed.
  3. CDF up to 6. . Why this step? The uniform CDF is the linear ramp — the fraction of the interval to the left of .

Verify: Check the whole interval sums to 1: . ✓ Units: probabilities are dimensionless and lie in . ✓


Ex 2 — Uniform degenerate limit (Cell C2)

Forecast: if you squeeze all the probability into a vanishing interval, does the height of the density go up or down?

  1. Height. as . Why this step? Area must stay ; if width shrinks, height must blow up to compensate — a "spike."
  2. Mean. . Why this step? The balance point of a shrinking interval collapses onto the single point .
  3. Variance. . Why this step? Zero spread means the "random" variable is now certain — a constant.

Verify: With : , — tiny, as predicted. ✓


Ex 3 — Exponential survival + memorylessness (Cell C3)

Forecast: guess — after waiting 4 minutes, is your remaining wait shorter than a fresh person's? (Intuition says yes; the maths says something surprising.)

  1. Survival function. . So . Why this step? "Wait exceeds " = "no bus in " = Poisson at = .
  2. Conditional wait uses memorylessness. Why this step? The exponential forgets elapsed time — the extra wait of more minutes has the same probability whether you're fresh or have waited 4 minutes.

Verify: Both answers equal . Units: minutes cancel inside (per-min min), leaving a dimensionless probability. ✓


Ex 4 — Exponential limiting rates (Cell C4)

Forecast: if events almost never happen (), does the mean wait go to or ?

  1. Mean and variance. , . Why this step? These are the standard exponential moments; keep them symbolic to see the limits.
  2. Slow limit . ; (and it blows up even faster than the mean, since it is the mean squared); and . Why this step? Events almost never happen ⇒ you wait essentially forever, with enormous uncertainty about how long ⇒ you're almost surely still waiting at time .
  3. Fast limit . ; ; and . Why this step? Events fire instantly ⇒ waits collapse to and the spread collapses too ⇒ you're essentially never still waiting at time .

Verify: At : , , . At : , , . ✓



Ex 5 — Normal, both tails, negative (Cell C5)

Forecast: which tail is bigger — below or above ? (Both are and away... watch the distances.)

Figure — Common continuous distributions — Uniform, Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Beta

What the figure shows: the teal bell curve of on warm paper, with a plum dashed line marking the mean . Dotted verticals at (labelled ) and (labelled ) bracket a burnt-orange shaded band; the caption reads "P(160≤X≤185)=0.7745". Because is below the mean while is above, the shaded band is not symmetric about the peak — it reaches slightly further to the right.

  1. Standardize the upper point. , so . Why this step? knows only the standard bell ; the -score says "how many above the mean."
  2. Standardize the lower point — negative . . Use the symmetry rule : Why this step? The bell is symmetric about ; the area left of equals the area right of .
  3. Middle band = difference of CDFs. . Why this step? Probability in a band = (pile-up to the right end) minus (pile-up to the left end) — see the shaded region in the figure.

Verify: , , band . Sanity: the symmetric band holds only ; our band swaps the right edge for the more distant , adding the extra slice from to , so the answer must exceed — and does. ✓


Ex 6 — Normal inverse / quantile (Cell C6)

Forecast: is above or below ?

  1. Translate "top 10%" into a CDF condition. Top means , so , i.e. . Why this step? We must work in the language of the CDF, which reads left-tail area.
  2. Read backwards. The with is (the quantile of ). Why this step? This "un-does" — the inverse question "which gives this area?"
  3. Un-standardize back to cm. cm. Why this step? converts the standard scale back to real height.

Verify: Check forward: , . ✓ And , consistent with Ex 5 where already exceeds . ✓


Ex 7 — Gamma with integer shape (Cell C7)

Forecast: should the mean be exactly the mean of one wait?

  1. Direct Gamma formulas. h, . Why this step? These come from plugging the Gamma density into the moment integrals (parent §4).
  2. Sum-of-exponentials check. is the sum of independent waits, each with mean and variance . Means add: . Variances add (independence): . Why this step? Integer- Gamma is a sum of exponentials, so both routes must agree — a built-in sanity net.
  3. Normalizer. The density is , using (see Gamma Function). Why this step? The constant is exactly what forces .

Verify: Both routes give . And . ✓


Ex 8 — Beta shape and the Uniform edge (Cell C8)

Forecast: with more "failure weight" (), is the mean below or above ?

Figure — Common continuous distributions — Uniform, Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Beta

What the figure shows: two curves on warm paper. The plum curve is — a hump pushed toward the left, with a burnt-orange dashed vertical at its mean . The teal curve is — a perfectly flat horizontal line at height across , i.e. the density of . Side by side they show how the two shape parameters bend the curve, and how the special case flattens it into the Uniform.

  1. Beta mean. . Why this step? The mean is the fraction of "success weight" among total weight; more failure weight pulls it left, as the plum curve in the figure shows.
  2. Beta variance. . Why this step? Direct substitution into the parent's variance formula.
  3. The Uniform edge. Put : . Using the definition above, , so on — the flat density of . See the teal line in the figure. Why this step? is the boundary case where the hump flattens completely into total ignorance. See Beta Function.

Verify: , , and so the Beta density is the constant — the Uniform. ✓


Ex 9 — Real-world word problem, two distributions (Cell C9)

Forecast: which part uses Exponential and which uses Normal? Decide before computing.

  1. Part (a) is a waiting time ⇒ Exponential. . Why this step? "Time until next arrival" in a Poisson stream is ; survival is .
  2. Part (b) is a measured magnitude ⇒ Normal. Standardize: , so . Why this step? Durations that are sums of many small sub-tasks tend to Normal (Central Limit Theorem); use with the -score, and remember (not ).

Verify: ; . Units: in (a), (dimensionless). ✓


Ex 10 — Exam twist: right , combined range (Cell C10)

Forecast: what is ? (This is the whole trap.)

  1. Extract correctly. ml. Use , never , in the -score. Why this step? The standardizing formula uses the standard deviation , not the variance — the classic parent-note mistake.
  2. Standardize both endpoints of the band. , . Why this step? Band probability = right-end CDF minus left-end CDF, using .
  3. Rejection = both tails. For : , . Accept , so reject . Why this step? "Outside an interval" = minus "inside"; symmetry gives .

Verify: ; reject . ✓ Units: all in ml, cancelling inside . ✓


Recall Self-test (reveal after guessing)

Uniform : ? ::: Exponential : ? ::: (memoryless) Normal : cutoff for top ? ::: cm Gamma mean and variance? ::: and Beta is which distribution? ::: , the flat density Bottle : what is ? ::: (square root of the variance) What does mean? ::: area under the standard bell to the left of

Recall Where this connects
  • The Normal examples lean on the Central Limit Theorem.
  • Exponential/Gamma waits come from the Poisson Process; the normalizer uses the Gamma Function.
  • Beta's constant uses the Beta Function; Beta as a random probability powers Conjugate Priors in Bayesian Inference.
  • Moments here can also be pulled from Moment Generating Functions.