4.9.3 · D3 · Maths › Probability Theory & Statistics › Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF
Intuition Yeh page kis liye hai
Parent note ne tumhe rules diye. Yeh page tumpe har tarah ke questions throw karta hai — clean cases, sneaky endpoints, degenerate "trick" inputs, ek infinite-support case, ek word problem, aur ek exam twist — aur har ek ko last decimal tak solve karta hai. Is page ke end tak koi bhi aisa scenario nahi bachega jo tumne solved nahi dekha ho.
Kuch bhi solve karne se pehle, poora battlefield map karte hain. Ek PMF/CDF problem in cells mein se kisi ek mein hi land kar sakti hai:
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Case class
Kya alag / dangerous hai
Example
A
Finite uniform support
sab masses equal hain — pure counting
Ex 1
B
Non-uniform finite support
masses alag hain; har ek ko track karna hoga
Ex 2
C
Endpoint bracketing (< vs ≤ )
points mass carry karte hain, toh kaunsa bracket matter karta hai
Ex 3
D
Parameter ke liye solve karna
unknown constant pin karne ke liye ∑ p = 1 use karo
Ex 4
E
Degenerate RV
saari mass ek point pe; PMF/CDF collapse ho jaate hain
Ex 5
F
CDF staircase se PMF recover karna
heights nahi, jumps padho
Ex 6
G
Countably infinite support
infinite sum phir bhi 1 total hona chahiye (geometric series)
Ex 7
H
Real-world word problem
English → RV → probability mein translate karo
Ex 8
I
Exam twist — P ( a ≤ X ≤ b ) aur left limits
subtle inclusive-both-ends formula
Ex 9
Ab hum har cell hit karenge.
Ek fair four-sided die X ∈ { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } dikhata hai. Full PMF nikalo, phir F X ( 2.7 ) nikalo.
Forecast: pehle F X ( 2.7 ) guess karo padhne se pehle — 2.7 par ya usse neeche kitna mass baitha hai?
PMF. Chaar equally likely faces ⇒ p X ( k ) = 4 1 for k = 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 .
Yeh step kyun? Uniform symmetry: koi bhi face special nahi hai, aur chaar masses ka sum 1 hona chahiye, toh har ek 4 1 hai.
Kaun se values ≤ 2.7 hain? Values 1 aur 2 .
Yeh step kyun? CDF har point mass ko ≤ x pe collect karta hai; yahan x = 2.7 hai toh hum 2 ke baad rok dete hain.
Unhe sum karo. F X ( 2.7 ) = p X ( 1 ) + p X ( 2 ) = 4 1 + 4 1 = 2 1 .
Verify: F X ( 4 ) ka 1 hona zaroori hai: 4 1 ⋅ 4 = 1 ✓, aur 2 1 ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] , CDF ke saath consistent hai.
Staircase dekho: yeh ( 2 , 3 ) pe flat hai, toh us gap mein kaheen bhi — including 2.7 — same height 2 1 milegi.
X = 2 fair coin tosses mein heads ki sankhya, toh X ∈ { 0 , 1 , 2 } . PMF aur F X ( 1 ) nikalo.
Forecast: X ki kaun si value sabse zyada mass carry karegi?
Outcomes list karo. { H H , H T , T H , T T } , har ek 4 1 probability ke saath.
Yeh step kyun? Chaar equally likely ordered outcomes humein directly count karne dete hain.
Head-count ke hisaab se group karo. X = 0 : sirf T T ⇒ 4 1 . X = 1 : H T , T H ⇒ 4 2 = 2 1 . X = 2 : sirf H H ⇒ 4 1 .
Yeh step kyun? RV kai outcomes ko same number pe map karta hai; hum unke masses add karte hain. Yeh Binomial Distribution hai n = 2 , p = 2 1 ke saath.
CDF at 1 . F X ( 1 ) = p X ( 0 ) + p X ( 1 ) = 4 1 + 2 1 = 4 3 .
Verify: masses sum karte hain 4 1 + 2 1 + 4 1 = 1 ✓. Middle value 1 sabse heavy hai, forecast se match karta hai.
Example 2 ke coin RV use karke, P ( 0 < X ≤ 2 ) aur P ( 0 ≤ X ≤ 2 ) compute karo. Kya yeh equal hain?
Forecast: kya yeh dono answers match karte hain, ya 0 pe bracket kuch change kar deta hai?
Strict-left version. P ( 0 < X ≤ 2 ) = F X ( 2 ) − F X ( 0 ) = 1 − 4 1 = 4 3 .
Yeh step kyun? F X ( 2 ) sab kuch ≤ 2 count karta hai; F X ( 0 ) subtract karne se 0 pe mass remove ho jaati hai. Kyunki 0 real mass carry karta hai (4 1 ), use remove karna cosmetic nahi hai.
Inclusive-both version. P ( 0 ≤ X ≤ 2 ) = F X ( 2 ) = 1 .
Yeh step kyun? Ab 0 included hai, toh hum uska mass subtract nahi karte. Sab kuch ≤ 2 hai, toh hum saara 1 collect karte hain.
Verify: dono answers ka difference exactly p X ( 0 ) = 4 1 hai, aur 4 3 + 4 1 = 1 ✓. Left end pe bracket usi point mass ke exactly barabar matter karta hai.
< aur ≤ same hain, yeh sirf style hai."
Fix: Discrete RVs ke liye ek single point positive mass hold karta hai. 0 < X ko 0 ≤ X se swap karne ne literally 4 1 probability add kar di. Hamesha poochho: kya endpoint ki mass andar hai ya bahar?
p X ( k ) = c 2 k for k = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 . c nikalo, phir P ( X ≥ 2 ) nikalo.
Forecast: kya c , 4 1 se bada hoga ya chhota?
Normalize karo. ∑ k = 0 3 c 2 k = c ( 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 ) = 15 c = 1 ⇒ c = 15 1 .
Yeh step kyun? Probability Axioms total mass = 1 force karte hain; woh single equation unknown ko pin kar deti hai.
Masses list karo. p X ( 0 ) = 15 1 , p X ( 1 ) = 15 2 , p X ( 2 ) = 15 4 , p X ( 3 ) = 15 8 .
Tail probability. P ( X ≥ 2 ) = p X ( 2 ) + p X ( 3 ) = 15 4 + 8 = 15 12 = 5 4 .
Yeh step kyun? X ≥ 2 ka matlab hai values 2 aur 3 ; unke masses add karo.
Verify: chaaon masses sum hote hain 15 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 1 ✓, har ek ≥ 0 ✓. c = 15 1 < 4 1 , forecast se match karta hai (mass bade k pe heavily pile hoti hai).
X = 7 hamesha (ek "constant random variable"). Iska PMF aur CDF likho, aur CDF properties check karo.
Forecast: staircase kaisa dikhega jab sirf ek step ho?
PMF. p X ( 7 ) = 1 aur p X ( x ) = 0 har doosre x ke liye.
Yeh step kyun? Saari probability mass single reachable value pe baithti hai.
CDF. F X ( x ) = 0 for x < 7 aur F X ( x ) = 1 for x ≥ 7 .
Yeh step kyun? Rightward chalte hue 7 tak kuch collect nahi hota, phir seedha full pe jump.
Property audit. Non-decreasing ✓ (0 → 1 jaata hai), right-continuous ✓ (jump x = 7 ko belong karta hai kyunki ≤ use include karta hai), limits 0 aur 1 ✓.
Verify: jump size = F X ( 7 ) − F X ( 7 − ) = 1 − 0 = 1 = p X ( 7 ) ✓ — single jump se PMF recover ho gayi. Yeh degenerate case Expectation and Variance of Discrete RVs ka seed hai: E [ X ] = 7 , variance = 0 .
Ek CDF diya gaya hai
F X ( x ) = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ 0 0.2 0.7 1 x < 1 1 ≤ x < 3 3 ≤ x < 5 x ≥ 5.
Full PMF recover karo.
Forecast: X actually kitni values leta hai, aur kahan?
Jumps dhundho. Height x = 1 , 3 , 5 pe change hoti hai. Jumps ke beech yeh flat hai, toh wahi sirf mass points hain.
Yeh step kyun? Ek discrete PMF exactly wahan rehti hai jahan staircase step up karti hai.
Har jump measure karo. p X ( 1 ) = 0.2 − 0 = 0.2 ; p X ( 3 ) = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5 ; p X ( 5 ) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3 .
Yeh step kyun? p X ( x i ) = F X ( x i ) − F X ( x i − ) — jump height hi point mass hai.
Verify: 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.3 = 1 ✓, sab ≥ 0 ✓. CDF 1 pe khatam hoti hai ✓.
height ko probability samajhna.
Fix: x = 3 pe height 0.7 cumulative hai (P ( X ≤ 3 ) ), p X ( 3 ) nahi. Mass jump hai, 0.5 , height nahi.
X = pehla head aane tak coin flips ki sankhya, fair coin ke saath. Toh X ∈ { 1 , 2 , 3 , … } (infinite!). PMF nikalo, confirm karo ki yeh 1 sum karta hai, aur P ( X ≤ 3 ) compute karo.
Forecast: positive masses ki ek infinite list — kya yeh sach mein exactly 1 add ho sakti hai?
PMF. Flip k pe pehla head paane ke liye, tumhe k − 1 tails phir ek head chahiye: p X ( k ) = ( 2 1 ) k − 1 ⋅ 2 1 = ( 2 1 ) k .
Yeh step kyun? Independent flips multiply hote hain; yeh geometric pattern hai.
Geometric series se sum check. ∑ k = 1 ∞ ( 2 1 ) k = 1 − 2 1 2 1 = 1 .
Yeh step kyun? Ek geometric series ∑ a r k jahan ∣ r ∣ < 1 ho, 1 − r a pe converge karta hai. Yeh tool humein chahiye kyunki hum haath se infinitely many terms add nahi kar sakte — closed form yeh kaam karta hai. Probability Axioms se countable additivity countably infinite union pe bhi apply hoti hai.
CDF. F X ( 3 ) = P ( X ≤ 3 ) = 2 1 + 4 1 + 8 1 = 8 7 .
Yeh step kyun? Pehle teen point masses sum karo.
Verify: 2 1 + 4 1 + 8 1 = 8 7 = 0.875 ✓, aur full infinite sum = 1 ✓. Related named PMF: Poisson Distribution ek aur infinite-support model hai.
Ek shop rainy hour mein 0 , 1 , ya 2 umbrellas probabilities 0.5 , 0.3 , 0.2 ke saath bechti hai. X = ek ghante mein biki umbrellas. F X ( 1 ) aur probability nikalo ki kam se kam ek umbrella biki.
Forecast: F X ( 1 ) aur P ( X ≥ 1 ) mein se kaunsa bada hai?
Translate karo. English directly PMF deti hai: p X ( 0 ) = 0.5 , p X ( 1 ) = 0.3 , p X ( 2 ) = 0.2 .
Yeh step kyun? RV ko naam dene se story numbers mein badal jaati hai jinhein hum sum kar sakte hain.
CDF at 1 . F X ( 1 ) = p X ( 0 ) + p X ( 1 ) = 0.5 + 0.3 = 0.8 .
Yeh step kyun? "≤ 1 " 0 aur 1 masses collect karta hai.
Kam se kam ek. P ( X ≥ 1 ) = 1 − p X ( 0 ) = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5 .
Yeh step kyun? Complement: "kuch nahi bika" ke alawa sab kuch. 0.3 + 0.2 add karne se sasta, aur match karta hai.
Verify: p X ( 1 ) + p X ( 2 ) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5 ✓ complement answer se match karta hai. Aur F X ( 1 ) = 0.8 > P ( X ≥ 1 ) = 0.5 (forecast: F X ( 1 ) bada, correct). Units: probabilities, sab [ 0 , 1 ] mein ✓.
Example 6 ke CDF use karke, (a) P ( 1 < X ≤ 3 ) , (b) P ( 1 ≤ X ≤ 3 ) , aur (c) P ( X = 3 ) sirf CDF se compute karo.
Forecast: kya (a) aur (b) alag honge, aur kitne se?
(a) strict left. P ( 1 < X ≤ 3 ) = F X ( 3 ) − F X ( 1 ) = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5 .
Yeh step kyun? 1 pe mass exclude karta hai, 3 pe mass keep karta hai. Yeh exactly p X ( 3 ) = 0.5 hai.
(b) inclusive both ends. P ( 1 ≤ X ≤ 3 ) = F X ( 3 ) − F X ( 1 − ) = 0.7 − 0 = 0.7 .
Yeh step kyun? Left endpoint include karne ke liye hum CDF ko 1 ke bilkul left se subtract karte hain, yaani F X ( 1 − ) = 0 , toh hum p X ( 1 ) nahi kho dete.
(c) point mass. P ( X = 3 ) = F X ( 3 ) − F X ( 3 − ) = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5 .
Yeh step kyun? Ek point ki probability uska jump hai: value pe F minus uske bilkul left F .
Verify: (b) − (a) = 0.7 − 0.5 = 0.2 = p X ( 1 ) ✓ — inclusive version ne exactly left-endpoint mass add ki. (c) = 0.5 , step 1 ke p X ( 3 ) se match karta hai ✓. Conditional Probability dekho ki yeh interval events conditional PMFs mein kaise feed karte hain.
Recall
P ( a ≤ X ≤ b ) kaunsa formula deta hai aur kyun?
P ( a ≤ X ≤ b ) = F X ( b ) − F X ( a − ) ::: a − use karne se (a ke bilkul left se) mass p X ( a ) andar rehti hai, unlike F X ( a ) jo use remove kar deta.
Recall CDF staircase se point mass
p X ( x i ) kaise nikaalte hain?
Measure the jump height ::: p X ( x i ) = F X ( x i ) − F X ( x i − ) .
Recall
p X ( k ) = ( 1/2 ) k , k ≥ 1 ke liye, total 1 kyun hota hai?
Geometric series ::: ∑ k ≥ 1 ( 1/2 ) k = 1 − 1/2 1/2 = 1 .
Recall Degenerate RV
X = 7 ka variance kya hai?
Zero ::: saari mass ek point pe hone ka matlab koi spread nahi, toh variance = 0 .
Related core notes: Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF · Probability Axioms · Continuous random variables — PDF, CDF · Expectation and Variance of Discrete RVs .
Geometric series sums to 1