4.9.3 · D1Probability Theory & Statistics

Foundations — Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF

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This page assumes nothing. Before you read the parent note, we build every symbol it quietly uses. Read top to bottom — each block is a brick the next one stands on. We introduce the PMF symbol and CDF symbol formally in §7–§9; until then we only name them in words.


1. The random experiment and its outcomes

Picture it. Roll one die. The outcomes are the six faces. Each face is an .

Why we need it. Probability starts from "what can happen?" Before we can attach numbers or chances, we must have a name for "one thing that happened." That name is .

Figure — Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF

2. The sample space

Picture it. A box. Inside the box sit all six dice faces. The box is ; each dot inside is an .

The symbol is read "is an element of" / "is inside." So is true.


3. Sets, events, and the tools , , disjoint

  • means "the set of all outcomes for which the number gives equals ." It is therefore an event — a subset of .
  • Disjoint sets share no members — like two boxes with nothing in common. Picture two circles that do not overlap.
  • read "union" glues sets together into one bigger set: . Picture pouring two boxes into one.

Why the topic needs this. The parent claims and are disjoint (a number can't be both 2 and 5), and their union over all values is the whole . That single sentence is what forces the masses to sum to 1 — so you must see the picture behind "event," , and "disjoint."

Figure — Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF

4. Probability and its three rules

The parent "derives" the PMF properties from three facts (the Probability Axioms). In plain words:

  1. Never negative: . Chance can't be less than nothing.
  2. Total is one: . Something in the box definitely happens.
  3. Add disjoint pieces: if events don't overlap, the chance of "any of them" is the sum of their chances. This is countable additivity — it works even for an infinite list of pieces.

5. Numbers we map into: and functions

Picture it. An arrow leaving each dot in the box and landing on a spot on the number line . That bundle of arrows is the random variable .

Why the topic needs it. Raw outcomes ("die shows the face with six pips") are awkward to compute with. translates each outcome into a number so we can do arithmetic, sum, and average.

Figure — Discrete random variables — PMF, CDF

6. Countable — the word that makes it "discrete"


7. The PMF symbol and the summation

Now we can name the first bookkeeping tool.

  • means "add over every value that can take."
  • means "add only the masses whose value is at most ."

Why the topic needs it. The normalization rule () and the running total we build in §8–§9 are both written with . If is opaque, the central formulas are unreadable — so we pin it down here.


8. The CDF symbol and the trick

Why the topic needs it. For discrete RVs a single point carries real chance, so whether you include or exclude an endpoint changes the answer. The formula literally measures the height of the jump at — the mass sitting exactly there. Picture standing on a stair: your height () minus the height a hair to your left () equals the step's rise ().


9. Putting the vocabulary together (this is the parent, in miniature)

Now every symbol in and has a meaning:

Symbol Plain words Picture
one outcome, box of all outcomes dots in a box
event / subset of a chunk of outcomes a region of the box
rule tagging each outcome a number arrows to a line
event: outcomes giving value a slice of the box
chance of an event, in how much water
countable listable value set numbered buckets
PMF: mass on value height of a bar
add up pour buckets together
include / just-left-of endpoint of a stair
CDF: running total of mass height climbed

Everything the parent does — masses, staircases, interval formulas — is these bricks stacked.


Prerequisite map

Outcome omega

Sample space Omega

Sets and union

Event subset of Omega

Probability P and axioms

Real numbers R

Function X maps Omega to R

Countable value set

Summation sigma

Inequalities and x minus

PMF p_X

CDF F_X


Equipment checklist

Read the question, answer aloud, then reveal. If any trips you, reread that section.

What does the symbol stand for, versus ?
is one single outcome; is the set of all possible outcomes (the whole sample space).
Read aloud: .
"The outcome omega is an element of (inside) the sample space Omega."
What is an event?
A subset of the sample space — a chunk of outcomes we can assign a probability to.
What does do, and what does "disjoint" mean?
(union) merges sets into one; disjoint means the sets share no members — no overlap.
State the three probability axioms in plain words.
(never negative); (something happens); disjoint events add their probabilities (countable additivity).
What does mean?
is a rule that takes each outcome and returns a real number — a translator from outcomes to numbers.
Why does "countable" make a variable discrete?
Countable values are listable, so each value can carry its own positive chunk of probability that we add — no integration needed.
What does the PMF symbol mean?
, the probability mass sitting exactly on the value .
Evaluate .
.
What does the CDF symbol mean?
, the running total of mass collected up to .
What is the difference between and , and why does it matter here?
includes the endpoint, excludes it; for discrete RVs a point has real mass, so this changes the probability.
What does mean, and why ?
is the cumulative total just to the left of ; subtracting it from leaves the jump height, which is the mass on .

Connections