Master Opening Range Breakout (ORB)

4.6.7 · Stock-Market › Trading Strategies

ORB kaam kyun karta hai? (First principles)

Poora edge yeh hai: pehle market ko apna haath dikhane do, phir winner ke saath chalo.

Strategy kaise banayein (Scratch se Derivation)

Hum rules dump nahi karte — hum derive karte hain har ek ko.

Step 1 — Range height define karo

$R = O R_{high} - O R_{low}$ Yeh step kyun? $R$ opening fight ki volatility measure karta hai. Wide $R$ = badi battle; narrow $R$ = coiled spring release hone ke liye taiyaar.

Long enter karo $O R_{high}$ par (ya ek tick upar, confirmed candle close par). Yeh step kyun? Humein breakout ka proof chahiye, koi fake poke nahi. Candle close noise wicks ko filter out karta hai.

Step 3 — Stop-loss

Stop ko opposite side ke thoda bahar, ya range ke half par rakho: $S L_{long} = O R_{low} (tight: O R_{high} - \frac{R}{2})$ Yeh step kyun? Agar price range mein wapas aati hai, toh breakout by definition fail ho gaya — thesis invalidate ho gayi, toh exit karo.

Step 4 — Risk:Reward se Target

Risk $= E - S L$ define karo jahan $E$ entry hai. Reward multiple $k$ choose karo: $Target = E + k (E - S L)$ Yeh step kyun? Target ko risk ke relative size karte hain taaki low win rate ke bawajood bhi hum profitable rahein. Expectancy survival govern karti hai, koi single trade nahi.

Step 5 — Expectancy check (asli edge)

$E [trade] = p \cdot R_{win} - (1 - p) \cdot R_{loss}$ jahan $p$ = win probability, $R_{win}$ = avg profit, $R_{loss}$ = avg loss. Yeh step kyun? Ek strategy tabhi trade karne layak hai jab $E [trade] > 0$ . 1:2 R:R aur risk = 1 unit ke saath, breakeven win rate wahan hai jahan $p \cdot 2 = (1 - p) \cdot 1 \Rightarrow p = \frac{1}{3}$ .

Figure — Master Opening Range Breakout (ORB)

Worked Examples

Common Mistakes (Steel-manned)

Active Recall

Recall Opening Range ko kya define karta hai?

Open ke baad pehle $N$ minutes (5/15/30) ka high aur low.

Recall Hum touch ki jagah candle CLOSE ka wait kyun karte hain?

Wick/liquidity-grab noise ko filter karne ke liye; ek close prove karta hai ki buyers ne saare sellers ko absorb kar liya.

Recall 1:3 R:R ke liye Breakeven win rate?

$p_{be} = \frac{1}{1 + 3} = 25%$ .

Recall Long ORB ko kya invalidate karta hai?

Price ka range mein wapas aana (OR high ke neeche / stop tak gir jaana).

Recall Entries ke liye wide ya narrow opening range prefer karein? Kyun?

Narrow: tighter stop, better R:R, coiled-spring energy.

Recall (Feynman, ek 12-saal ke bachche ko samjhao)

Socho kuch bachche zameen par bane ek chhote square ke andar tug-of-war khel rahe hain. Jab tak rope-knot square ke andar hai, koi sach mein jeet nahi raha. JAISE HI knot square ke bahar kheencha jaata hai, ek team clearly jeet gayi aur doosri team unke peeche kheenchi jaati hai — woh sliding karte rehte hain. Trading mein, square opening range hai, aur "sliding" price trend hai. Hum wait karte hain knot ke square se bahar nikalne ka, phir jeeti hui team par bet karte hain.

Connections

Support and Resistance — OR high/low IS intraday S/R levels hain.
Volatility and ATR — range height $R$ ek micro-volatility measure hai.
Risk-Reward and Position Sizing — expectancy $E = p k - (1 - p)$ ORB survival drive karti hai.
Volume Confirmation — real breakouts rising volume dikhate hain.
Breakout Trading — ORB intraday special case hai.
Stop-Loss Placement — range ki opposite side.

Opening Range (OR) kya hai?

Market open ke baad pehle N minutes (5/15/30) ke highest high aur lowest low ke beech ka interval.

Long ORB entry kya trigger karta hai?

OR high ke upar close karne wali candle.

Short ORB entry kya trigger karti hai?

OR low ke neeche close karne wali candle.

Touch ki jagah candle close ka wait kyun karo?

Wick/liquidity-grab fakeouts se bachne ke liye; close genuine absorption prove karta hai opposite side ki.

Range height R ka formula?

R = OR_high − OR_low.

Long ORB ke liye stop-loss kahan rakho?

OR low par (opposite side) ya tighter OR_high − R/2 par.

Entry E, stop SL, reward multiple k diya ho toh Target formula?

Target = E + k·(E − SL).

Ek trade ki Expectancy?

E = p·R_win − (1−p)·R_loss.

Reward:risk k:1 ke liye Breakeven win rate formula?

p_be = 1/(1+k).

1:2 R:R par Breakeven win rate?

33.3% (1/3).

1:3 R:R par Breakeven win rate?

25% (1/4).

Long ORB thesis ko kya invalidate karta hai?

Price ka range mein wapas aana / stop hit karna.

Wide vs narrow opening range — kaun sa preferable hai aur kyun?

Narrow — tighter stop, better R:R, coiled-spring energy.

Breakout ke baad ORB trend kyun karta hai (reflexivity)?

Trapped losers ke stop-losses breakout direction mein market orders ban jaate hain, fuel add karte hue.

60-min opening window kyun use NAHI karna chahiye?

Move already khatam ho sakta hai; huge range = door stop = kharab R:R.