4.9.23 · D5Probability Theory & Statistics

Question bank — Multiple regression

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True or false — justify

Every tells you the effect of ignoring the other predictors.
False. It is the effect of holding the other predictors fixed — its partial (unique) contribution, not its isolated effect.
If two predictors have literally orthogonal columns in the observed , adding the second one never changes the slope of the first.
True — but note the condition is sample orthogonality ( in the actual design matrix), not merely population "uncorrelated." Only then do the slopes decouple so the estimate for is identical with or without ; finite-sample correlation between columns generally breaks this.
A larger raw coefficient always means matters more.
False. Coefficients carry the units of their predictor; rescale hours to minutes and the coefficient shrinks with no change in real importance. Compare standardised coefficients or t-statistics.
can be negative.
For (in-sample, with intercept), no — it is trapped in by the Pythagorean split. But on held-out data (or a no-intercept model) can have , giving a negative value: the model predicts worse than the flat mean line.
Adding a completely random predictor can lower .
False for (in-sample, with intercept): it never decreases when you add a column, since the fit can only stay equal or improve. (On held-out data, or in no-intercept models, the out-of-sample version can fall.) That is exactly why we need ==adjusted ==, which can fall in-sample.
The residual vector is orthogonal to every column of .
True — that is the geometric meaning of the normal equations : least squares drops a perpendicular onto the column space. See Orthogonal Projection.
Least squares assumes the errors are normally distributed.
False. The estimator needs no normality. Normality is only assumed later for exact t-tests and confidence intervals. The Gauss–Markov optimality needs only zero-mean, constant-variance, uncorrelated errors.
If is invertible, the least-squares solution is unique.
True. Invertibility means the predictors are not perfectly collinear, so the columns are independent, the projection has one representation, and is unique.
is always positive semidefinite.
True. For any vector , , which is the definition of PSD. It is strictly positive definite (hence invertible) exactly when has full column rank.
Multicollinearity biases the coefficient estimates.
False. Under Gauss–Markov the OLS estimates stay unbiased; multicollinearity inflates their variance, making them unstable and hard to trust — not systematically wrong on average.

Spot the error

"We solved ."
Wrong grouping: it must be . is and generally singular; is the small matrix that is actually invertible. See Matrix Inverse.
"We dropped the column of 1's to simplify the matrix."
That forces the hyperplane through the origin (), i.e. it must predict when all — almost always wrong and it corrupts every other slope.
"Two predictors are perfectly correlated, so we inverted anyway."
Perfect correlation makes a column a linear combination of others, so is singular (determinant zero) and has no inverse; no unique solution exists until you drop or combine a predictor.
", therefore the predictors cause ."
A high measures association/fit, not causation. Causal claims need experimental design or explicit causal assumptions, not a good fit.
"We minimised the sum of the residuals to get the best line."
The plain sum of residuals is zero by construction (when an intercept is present) and lets positives cancel negatives. We minimise the sum of squared residuals, which cannot cancel.
"Model B has more predictors and higher , so Model B is better."
In-sample always rises (or ties) when you add predictors, so this comparison is empty. Compare adjusted , or better, out-of-sample error via cross-validation.
" came out negative, but sleep obviously helps, so the data must be wrong."
A negative partial slope means: after accounting for the other predictors, more sleep is associated with lower in this sample. Sign flips are a classic symptom of multicollinearity, not corrupt data — check the VIF.

Why questions

Why do we square the residuals instead of taking absolute values?
Squares are smooth (differentiable everywhere), penalise large misses harder, and yield a unique closed-form minimum via the normal equations. Absolute values give a non-smooth problem with no simple formula.
Why does setting the gradient to zero actually give the minimum, not a maximum or saddle?
Because is a quadratic with Hessian , which is PSD, so any stationary point is a global minimum. When has full column rank the Hessian is positive definite (strictly convex), making that minimiser the unique one; if rank is deficient, minima form a flat set.
Why is " = effect holding others fixed" different from running a simple regression of on alone?
A simple regression slope absorbs both 's direct effect and whatever it correlates with; the multiple-regression slope removes the part explained by the other predictors, isolating 's unique contribution.
Why does the leading column of 1's produce the intercept?
In every row that 1 multiplies , so is added to every prediction — it is the vertical offset of the hyperplane, present regardless of the values.
Why does adjusted penalise extra predictors while plain does not?
Adjusted divides each sum of squares by its degrees of freedom; a useless predictor costs a degree of freedom, inflating and lowering the adjusted value even as raw nudges up.
Why does near-collinearity blow up the coefficient variances?
Near-collinearity makes nearly singular, so has huge entries; since , those large entries directly inflate coefficient variances.
Why is the fitted vector called a projection?
is the closest point to inside the column space of ; "closest" in Euclidean distance means dropping a perpendicular, which is precisely orthogonal projection.
Why does the split break without an intercept?
The Pythagorean argument needs the mean vector to lie in the column space; the 1's column is what guarantees this. Drop it and the residual is no longer orthogonal to , so the cross-term does not vanish and the three sums stop adding up.

Edge cases

What happens if you have exactly as many predictors (plus intercept) as observations, ?
With full rank the hyperplane passes through every point, and — but this is pure interpolation with zero degrees of freedom for error; it tells you nothing about generalisation.
What if every response is identical, so ?
Then divides by zero — is undefined (degenerate). Geometrically there is no variation to explain: the best fit is the flat line with too, so the ratio is . Report that the response has no variance rather than a meaningless .
What if a predictor is constant (same value for every observation)?
Its column is proportional to the 1's column, creating perfect collinearity; becomes singular and the intercept/slope split is undefined until you remove the constant column.
What does mean geometrically?
The fitted values equal the mean for every point — the best hyperplane is flat, so no predictor explains any variation and .
If all predictors have mutually orthogonal columns, how do the multiple-regression slopes relate to separate simple regressions?
They coincide: with orthogonal columns each slope is computed independently, so multiple regression gives exactly the same coefficients as running each simple regression alone.
What if you fit with more predictors than data points, ?
cannot have full column rank, is singular, and infinitely many achieve ; OLS has no unique solution and you need regularisation or fewer predictors.
Can two very different coefficient vectors give the same predictions?
Yes — exactly when the predictors are collinear, so the column space is spanned in more than one way; the projection is unique but its coordinates are not.
What is the fitted line when there is a single predictor and no collinearity?
Multiple regression reduces to simple linear regression: the hyperplane collapses to a straight line and gives the familiar slope-and-intercept pair.

Recall One-line self-test before you close this page

Say aloud: why is the residual perpendicular to the columns of , and why does that single fact produce the whole estimator? Answer ::: Perpendicularity is , which rearranges directly into the normal equations ; solving them is least squares.