4.9.18 · D5Probability Theory & Statistics

Question bank — Properties of estimators — unbiasedness, consistency, efficiency

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True or false — justify

An unbiased estimator is always consistent.
False. (just the first data point) is unbiased for but its variance stays for all , so it never homes in — unbiasedness is a fixed- property, consistency is a limit property.
A consistent estimator must be unbiased.
False. The divide-by- sample variance is biased low for every finite , yet its bias , so it still converges to and is consistent.
If as , then is consistent.
False. That is only asymptotic unbiasedness (the centre approaches ). You also need the variance to vanish; a distribution can be centred correctly yet stay spread out forever.
Among two unbiased estimators, the one with smaller MSE is the one with smaller variance.
True — but only because for unbiased estimators , so the comparison reduces to variance. See Bias–Variance Tradeoff.
The Cramér–Rao bound says no estimator can have variance below , where is the Fisher information.
False on two counts. It bounds unbiased estimators only (a biased constant has zero variance), and it holds only under regularity conditions — differentiable likelihood and a support not depending on . See Fisher Information.
(divide by ) is unbiased, so it must have smaller MSE than the divide-by- version.
False. The divide-by- estimator is biased but has smaller variance, and for normal data it actually has smaller MSE — unbiasedness is not the same as MSE-optimal.
If is unbiased for , then is unbiased for .
False. Only linear preserve unbiasedness. By Jensen's inequality , so over-estimates .
An efficient estimator (one hitting the CRLB) always exists for every parameter.
False. The bound is a floor; sometimes no unbiased estimator reaches it. The MVUE (minimum-variance unbiased estimator) is then the best available, but it may still sit strictly above .
Doubling the sample size halves the variance of .
True. , so gives — exactly half. This shrinking-to-zero variance is why is consistent (a Law of Large Numbers statement).
The MLE is always unbiased.
False. The MLE for Uniform is , which is biased low (). MLEs are only asymptotically unbiased and consistent — see Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

Spot the error

"To estimate I average the squared deviations from and divide by — that's what an average is."
The deviations are measured from , not the true , and sits inside the data, so the squared deviations are systematically too small. You spent one degree of freedom estimating the mean; divide by to correct.
" has variance and has variance , so the relative efficiency of to is , meaning is better."
The number is correct but the reading is backwards: relative efficiency of to is ; here has the larger variance, so is the more efficient one.
"My estimator's bias is , which is tiny, so it's basically unbiased and therefore consistent."
A tiny fixed bias that does not shrink with blocks consistency — the estimator converges to , not . Consistency needs the bias to , not merely to be small.
"The estimator converges to the right value in every single sample I ran, so it's consistent."
Consistency is convergence in probability, a statement about the sampling distribution as , not about a handful of runs. A few lucky samples prove nothing about the limit.
"MSE = Variance − Bias², because bias pulls the estimator off target and reduces error."
The sign is wrong: . Both terms are non-negative and add; bias never reduces mean squared error.
"Since uses all the data, it must be the minimum-variance estimator no matter the distribution."
Equal weighting is optimal only when the observations have equal variance. If some are noisier, a variance-weighted average beats plain .

Why questions

Why do we divide by instead of for the sample variance?
Because is fitted to the data and hugs it, the deviations are on average smaller than ; the algebra gives , so dividing by restores unbiasedness.
Why does a lower bound on variance (CRLB) even exist?
Each observation carries only finite information about ; the Fisher information measures how sharply the likelihood peaks, and a flatter peak means can't be pinned down tightly — so variance can't drop below .
Why is unbiasedness alone not enough to call an estimator "good"?
An unbiased estimator can still be wildly variable (like ), scattering far from on any given sample. Being centred correctly is worthless if the wobble never shrinks — you also want low variance and consistency.
Why is MSE the fairer scorecard when comparing a biased and an unbiased estimator?
Variance-only comparison rewards biased estimators unfairly (a constant has zero variance). MSE = Var + Bias² charges the estimator for both its wobble and its off-centredness, so it compares them on equal footing.
Why can a slightly biased shrinkage estimator beat the unbiased one on MSE?
Shrinking toward a value trades a small bias for a larger drop in variance; when the variance saving exceeds the squared bias added, total MSE falls — this is the Bias–Variance Tradeoff in action.
Why is consistency essentially the Law of Large Numbers wearing a disguise for ?
The Law of Large Numbers says ; that is precisely the definition of being consistent for , driven by .
Why does Fisher information for i.i.d. points equal times the single-observation information?
Independent observations contribute additively to the log-likelihood, and the information is the expected squared score, so information adds: — more data, proportionally more information, hence the CRLB floor drops like .

Edge cases

Is (a constant, ignoring all data) unbiased for ?
Only in the single degenerate case ; for every other its expectation is , so it is biased. It does have zero variance, showing why "smallest variance" alone is a bad criterion.
For Uniform, why does the MLE always underestimate ?
Every observed value is , so their maximum can never exceed and almost surely falls short; hence , a strictly-below bias that shrinks as grows.
What happens to consistency if the population variance is infinite?
The MSE argument via collapses since . may still be consistent under the Law of Large Numbers (which only needs a finite mean), but the neat variance-based reasoning fails — you need a stronger tool.
Can an estimator be efficient (attain the CRLB) yet be inconsistent?
No — attaining the CRLB requires being unbiased with variance , so its MSE vanishes and it is automatically consistent. Efficiency in this classical sense is the strongest of the three properties.
At , what does the sample variance give?
It is — undefined. With a single point , so the deviation is zero and there are zero degrees of freedom; you cannot estimate spread from one observation.
Is the Central Limit Theorem needed to prove is unbiased or consistent?
No. Unbiasedness needs only linearity of expectation, and consistency needs only . The CLT describes the shape (approximate normality) of 's sampling distribution, a separate and finer question.
If two unbiased estimators have identical variance, which is more efficient?
Neither — they are equally efficient by definition, since efficiency compares variances among unbiased estimators and here they tie. Relative efficiency equals exactly .