4.9.4 · D5Probability Theory & Statistics

Question bank — Expected value, variance, standard deviation — properties

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Three pictures to hold in your head

Before the traps, three quick visuals — most concept errors on this page dissolve once you see these.

Figure 1 — Why squaring stops the cancellation. Deviations point left (negative) and right (positive); averaged raw, they cancel to exactly . Squaring folds both sides upward so nothing cancels.

Figure — Expected value, variance, standard deviation — properties

Figure 2 — Why variances add "in quadrature." Two independent spreads combine like the two legs of a right triangle: the total SD is the hypotenuse , always shorter than .

Figure — Expected value, variance, standard deviation — properties

Figure 3 — Why (Jensen). For the convex cup , the average of the curve heights sits above the curve at the average input. That vertical gap is exactly the variance.

Figure — Expected value, variance, standard deviation — properties

True or false — justify

requires and independent.
False — linearity of expectation holds always, even for dependent variables, because expectation is just a weighted sum and sums split unconditionally.
requires independence.
It needs only (uncorrelatedness); independence is sufficient but slightly stronger than necessary. See Covariance and Correlation.
Variance can be negative if takes negative values.
False — variance is the average of squared deviations, and squares are never negative, so regardless of the sign of .
is possible for a genuine random variable.
True, but only if is a constant (a "degenerate" distribution): zero spread means every outcome equals the mean with probability one.
for every random variable.
True — their difference is exactly , which is also Jensen's inequality applied to the convex function .
Standard deviation is measured in the same units as .
True — that is the whole reason we take the square root; variance lives in units-squared, and returns us to the original scale.
.
False — the correct factor is , the absolute value, because standard deviation is a distance and must stay even when .
If then .
True — using the scale rule with gives ; flipping the number line reflects the cluster but doesn't change how scattered it is.
for all random variables.
False — this factorisation holds only when and are uncorrelated (in particular, independent); otherwise the gap is exactly .
The mean must be one of the values can actually take.
False — a fair die has , which is never rolled; the mean is a balance point, not an attainable outcome.

Spot the error

" because variance is linear."
The error is treating variance like expectation; variance uses squared deviations, so the constant is squared: .
"."
The sum rule needs independence, but is perfectly correlated with itself; correctly gives .
" since expectation passes through functions."
Only linear functions pass through; is nonlinear, so in general (Jensen even fixes the direction of the gap).
" for independent ."
Variances add, not SDs: , so SDs add in quadrature, , which is smaller than (see Figure 2).
"."
Subtraction inside doesn't subtract variances; , and for independent variables it adds to .
"For a Bernoulli variable, ."
For a variable , so , not ; the variance is exactly this gap. See Bernoulli and Binomial Distributions.
"Adding a constant shifts the mean and also increases the variance."
Adding slides the whole distribution but leaves spread untouched, so — only the mean moves.
" because a variable is perfectly correlated with itself."
Perfect correlation is , but covariance of with itself is , which can be any nonnegative number — you're confusing covariance with correlation.

Why questions

Why do we square the deviations instead of just averaging (recall )?
Because always (positive and negative deviations cancel by definition of the mean), so squaring is needed to stop the cancellation and get a real measure of spread — exactly the fold shown in Figure 1.
Why square rather than take absolute value ?
Squaring gives clean, differentiable algebra (a computational formula, additivity under independence) that lacks, and it penalises large deviations more heavily.
Why does the vanish in ?
Because the new mean also shifts by , so in the two terms cancel, leaving only the scaling by .
Why does independence make covariance zero?
Independence forces , and covariance is defined as exactly , so it collapses to .
Why is never smaller than ?
Their difference is the variance, an average of squares, which cannot be negative; equality holds only when is constant (the convex-cup gap in Figure 3).
Why does averaging many independent copies shrink the variance?
For the sample mean , variances add for the sum but the factor squares in the average, giving — the mechanism behind the Law of Large Numbers.
Why is Bernoulli variance largest at ?
is a downward parabola peaking at ; a fair coin is maximally uncertain, while near or is nearly deterministic and so barely spreads.

Edge cases

What is when takes a single value with probability ?
Zero — there is no deviation from the mean , so spread is exactly (the degenerate distribution).
What is ?
Zero, since is the constant ; the scale rule gives , matching a distribution with no spread.
If and are uncorrelated but dependent, does still hold?
Yes — the sum rule only requires , which uncorrelatedness supplies, even though independence (a stronger property) may fail.
Can a distribution have a finite mean but infinite (undefined) variance?
Yes — heavy-tailed distributions can have a well-defined while diverges, making variance infinite; such cases break the Central Limit Theorem's usual guarantees.
What happens to as ?
It tends to : the distribution is squashed toward the constant , so all spread disappears — consistent with , where .
If two variables are perfectly negatively correlated with equal standard deviation , what is ?
Zero — with equal variance and , the sum rule gives ; the fluctuations cancel exactly, like a perfect hedge.