2.2.7 · D5Linear & Logistic Regression

Question bank — Assumptions of linear regression

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Before we start, one shared vocabulary reminder so nothing here uses an undefined term:

The two figures below are the visual dictionary for every diagnostic question on this page — glance back at them whenever a reveal mentions a "funnel", a "U-shape", or a "Q-Q plot".

Figure — Assumptions of linear regression
Figure — Assumptions of linear regression

True or false — justify

TF1. "OLS becomes biased when errors are heteroscedastic."
False. Non-constant variance leaves unbiased; it only makes OLS inefficient and its standard errors wrong. The line still lands in the right place on average — you just can't trust the confidence intervals. See Weighted Least Squares for the efficient fix.
TF2. "Normality of errors is required for OLS coefficients to be BLUE."
False. Gauss–Markov gives BLUE from linearity, exogeneity, independence, and equal variance alone. Normality is only needed for exact -tests and -tests — see Hypothesis Testing in Regression.
TF3. "Linearity means the scatter of against raw must look like a straight line."
False. It means is linear in the coefficients. After a or feature, a visually curved cloud can perfectly satisfy linearity.
TF4. "If two predictors are perfectly correlated, OLS gives wrong but computable coefficients."
False. With perfect collinearity, is exactly singular — the inverse does not exist and OLS has no unique solution at all. Near-perfect correlation is what gives huge-but-computable coefficients.
TF5. "A high confirms the assumptions are satisfied."
False. only measures fraction of variance explained. You can hit while residuals show a clean U-shape (linearity broken) or a funnel (heteroscedasticity).
TF6. "Independence of errors is the same thing as predictors being uncorrelated."
False. Independence is about the errors across observations (rows of ). Multicollinearity is about predictor columns of being linearly related. Different axes of the data, different problems.
TF7. "With , a heavy-tailed error distribution makes hypothesis tests invalid."
False in effect. The Central Limit Theorem makes the sampling distribution of approximately normal for large , so -tests stay approximately valid even when individual errors aren't normal.
TF8. "Homoscedasticity is an assumption about , not about the errors."
False. Homoscedasticity is precisely the assumption that the error variance is constant. It constrains the spread of the noise at each , not the marginal spread of — those are different quantities.
TF9. "If the Durbin–Watson statistic is near 2, errors are independent."
True (roughly). signals no first-order autocorrelation. But only catches lag-1 correlation — it can miss seasonal or higher-lag dependence, so it's necessary-ish, not sufficient.

Spot the error

SE1. "The residuals-vs-fitted plot funnels outward, so the true relationship must be nonlinear."
Error: wrong diagnosis. A funnel (see left panel of the first figure) is the signature of heteroscedasticity (growing variance). Nonlinearity shows as a curve or U-shape, not a fan.
SE2. "VIF for a predictor is ."
Error: it's . As (predictor perfectly explained by the others), the denominator and VIF blows up — that's the whole point.
SE3. "Since income has huge variance at high education, I should drop the high-earners as outliers."
Error. That spread is the heteroscedasticity, not a data flaw. The fix is a transform or Weighted Least Squares with weights , not deletion — deleting valid points biases the model.
SE4. "I added robust (heteroscedasticity-consistent) standard errors, so my coefficients are now efficient."
Error. Robust SEs correct the reported uncertainty, but the point estimates are unchanged and still inefficient. Only reweighting (WLS/GLS) recovers efficiency.
SE5. "Errors were correlated, so I used ridge regression to fix it."
Error: wrong tool. Ridge and Lasso Regression treats multicollinearity (correlated columns of ). Correlated errors call for GLS, ARIMA, or mixed-effects models.
SE6. "My Q-Q plot points curve above the line at the top-right, so the errors are left-skewed."
Error: it's right-skewed. Points rising above the diagonal in the upper-right (right panel of the second figure) mean the right tail is heavier than normal — large positive residuals — i.e. right skew.
SE7. "The condition number of is small, so I definitely have severe multicollinearity."
Error: backwards. A large condition number (a huge ratio of largest to smallest eigenvalue) signals near-singularity. A small one means the predictors are comfortably independent.

Why questions

WHY1. Why does correlated (positively autocorrelated) error inflate false significance?
Positive autocorrelation means nearby observations carry redundant information, so the effective sample size is smaller than . OLS's standard-error formula assumes independence and thus divides by too-large an , shrinking SEs and making -values falsely tiny.
WHY2. Why does OLS "overweight" noisy points under heteroscedasticity?
OLS minimizes plain squared residuals, giving every point equal weight. The optimal (GLS) weight is , which down-weights high-variance points. Equal weighting therefore lets the noisiest observations pull the fit more than they should — see Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) vs Weighted Least Squares.
WHY3. Why does near-collinearity make coefficient signs flip with tiny data changes?
When two columns of nearly overlap, the smallest eigenvalue of is close to , and has entries . Tiny perturbations get amplified enormously, so the model can't decide how to split shared information — signs and magnitudes swing wildly.
WHY4. Why does a transform often cure heteroscedasticity?
If the errors enter multiplicatively rather than additively — a model of the form where the noise scales the mean instead of being added to it — then the spread grows with the mean. Taking logs turns that product into a sum (), converting a proportional (fanning) spread into a constant additive one, flattening the funnel. It only helps when the variance genuinely scales with the mean this way.
WHY5. Why is normality dispensable for prediction but crucial for inference?
Prediction needs only that the fitted line is the right expectation, which BLUE guarantees without normality. Inference (confidence intervals, -values) needs the exact shape of 's sampling distribution to invoke and tables — and that exact shape comes from normal errors (or large- CLT).
WHY6. Why can't a correlation matrix alone reliably detect multicollinearity?
Pairwise correlations only catch two-variable overlap. A predictor can be a linear combination of three or more others while every pairwise correlation stays modest — VIF (which regresses each predictor on all the rest) catches this; a heatmap does not.
WHY7. Why does the CLT rescue inference at large but not always at small ?
The CLT concerns the average behavior of many error terms feeding into ; convergence to normal needs enough terms. At there aren't enough, so heavy tails still distort the sampling distribution — hence bootstrap or robust regression for small samples.
WHY7b. Why does exogeneity (), and not linearity, control unbiasedness?
Even a correctly-shaped linear model is pulled off-target if the errors correlate with (e.g. an omitted variable riding in the noise). Only guarantees the fitted line's slope has no systematic tilt — so is unbiased.

Edge cases

EC1. What happens to homoscedasticity if is a count (e.g. number of accidents)?
Counts have variance tied to their mean (Poisson-like), so variance cannot be constant — a built-in heteroscedasticity. The principled move is a GLM with a Poisson family, not plain OLS.
EC2. You have only points and non-normal residuals. Valid inference?
No CLT help at , so -tests are untrustworthy. Use bootstrap resampling or robust regression, and treat any reported -value with heavy skepticism.
EC3. Two predictors have VIF each — safe?
By the usual VIF < 5 rule they scrape under the line, but 4.9 is borderline. Interpret coefficients cautiously; if they concern the same underlying quantity, consider combining them (PCA) or a ridge penalty.
EC4. All residuals are exactly zero (perfect fit). Which assumptions can you even check?
With zero residuals you can't assess linearity, homoscedasticity, or normality — the diagnostics are empty. Perfect fit usually signals overfitting or an exact linear dependence, and screams to inspect for hidden collinearity (see Bias-Variance Tradeoff).
EC5. Sample size is smaller than the number of predictors . What breaks first?
is guaranteed singular (rank at most ), so OLS has no unique solution — a total collinearity failure. You must reduce dimensions or use a penalized method like Lasso.
EC6. Errors are independent and constant-variance but strongly right-skewed, . Are confidence intervals valid?
Yes, approximately. BLUE holds regardless of shape, and lets the CLT normalize 's sampling distribution, so intervals and tests are close to correct despite the skew.
EC7. A predictor is a constant column (same value for every row). What assumption or condition fails?
A constant column is perfectly collinear with the intercept column of , making singular — extreme multicollinearity. Its coefficient is unidentifiable and must be dropped.
Recall Quick self-test

Funnel in residuals means what? ::: Heteroscedasticity — non-constant error variance. U-shape in residuals means what? ::: Nonlinearity — the mean model is misspecified. VIF formula? ::: . Does heteroscedasticity bias ? ::: No — it stays unbiased but becomes inefficient with wrong SEs. Which assumption gives unbiasedness? ::: Exogeneity, .