Level 3 — ProductionBasic Data & Probability

Basic Data & Probability

45 minutes50 marksprintable — key stays hidden on paper

Level: 3 (Production — from-scratch derivations, code-from-memory, explain-out-loud) Time limit: 45 minutes Total marks: 50

Instructions: Show all working. Where an "explain-out-loud" prompt appears, write your reasoning in full sentences. Use ...... for any mathematics.


Question 1 — Data collection & tables (8 marks)

A student surveys 30 classmates on the number of siblings each has. The raw data is:

2, 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 4, 0, 2, 1, 3, 2, 0, 1, 2, 5, 1, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1, 4, 2, 0, 1, 3, 2, 1, 22,\ 1,\ 0,\ 3,\ 2,\ 1,\ 4,\ 0,\ 2,\ 1,\ 3,\ 2,\ 0,\ 1,\ 2,\ 5,\ 1,\ 2,\ 0,\ 3,\ 2,\ 1,\ 4,\ 2,\ 0,\ 1,\ 3,\ 2,\ 1,\ 2

(a) State whether this is primary or secondary data, and explain why in one sentence. (2)

(b) Build a complete tally chart and frequency table for the values 0–5. (4)

(c) Explain out loud: why would a frequency table be preferred over the raw list when you next want to compute the mean? (2)


Question 2 — Averages from scratch (10 marks)

Using the frequency table you built in Q1:

(a) Derive the mean number of siblings from first principles — write the formula xˉ=fxf\bar{x}=\dfrac{\sum fx}{\sum f}, show the fx\sum fx computation, then evaluate. (4)

(b) Find the median. State the position rule you use and justify it. (3)

(c) Find the mode and the range. Define range in your own words first. (3)


Question 3 — Grouped data mean (9 marks)

The masses (kg) of 40 parcels are grouped:

Mass (kg) 0m<50 \le m < 5 5m<105 \le m < 10 10m<1510 \le m < 15 15m<2015 \le m < 20
Frequency 6 14 12 8

(a) Explain out loud why we must use midpoints and what assumption this makes about the data. (2)

(b) Compute the estimated mean mass, showing the midpoint column and fx\sum fx. (5)

(c) State the modal class and the class containing the median. Justify the median class using a position argument. (2)


Question 4 — Charts from memory (7 marks)

A pie chart is to be drawn for how 60 people travel to work: Car 25, Bus 15, Walk 12, Cycle 8.

(a) Derive the angle for each sector from scratch (show the "degrees per person" reasoning). (4)

(b) Verify your angles sum correctly and explain why this check matters. (1)

(c) If instead a pictogram used one symbol = 4 people, how many symbols (including partial) represent the Bus category? (2)


Question 5 — Probability from a sample space (9 marks)

Two fair six-sided dice are rolled and the scores added.

(a) Construct (in words or a table) the sample space and state its size. (2)

(b) Derive P(sum=7)P(\text{sum} = 7) from P(E)=favourabletotalP(E)=\dfrac{\text{favourable}}{\text{total}}, listing favourable outcomes. (3)

(c) Find P(sum10)P(\text{sum} \ge 10). (2)

(d) Use the complement rule to find P(sum9)P(\text{sum} \le 9), and explain out loud why this is faster than counting directly. (2)


Question 6 — Scatter & interpretation (7 marks)

A scatter plot shows hours revised (xx) against exam score (yy) for 8 students. The points trend upward from lower-left to upper-right, but one point sits at (2 hours, 90%) far above the trend.

(a) Name and describe the type of correlation shown. (2)

(b) Explain out loud what the point (2, 90%) is called and whether it should influence a line of best fit. (3)

(c) A line of best fit passes through (0,30)(0, 30) and (10,80)(10, 80). Derive its gradient and interpret it in context. (2)

Answer keyMark scheme & solutions

Question 1 (8)

(a) Primary data (1) — because the student collected it directly/first-hand via their own survey, rather than reusing someone else's published data. (1)

(b) Counting the raw list:

Siblings Tally Frequency
0
1
2
3
4
5

Total =5+8+10+4+2+1=30= 5+8+10+4+2+1 = 30(4) — 1 mark per 2 correct rows; deduct if total ≠ 30.

(c) A frequency table groups identical values with their counts, so instead of adding 30 separate numbers you compute fx\sum fx with only 6 products — fewer operations, less error, and it makes the f\sum f (total) immediately visible. (2)


Question 2 (10)

(a) Formula: xˉ=fxf\bar{x}=\dfrac{\sum fx}{\sum f}. (1)

fx=(0)(5)+(1)(8)+(2)(10)+(3)(4)+(4)(2)+(5)(1)\sum fx = (0)(5)+(1)(8)+(2)(10)+(3)(4)+(4)(2)+(5)(1) =0+8+20+12+8+5=53= 0+8+20+12+8+5 = 53 (2)

xˉ=5330=1.761.77\bar{x} = \dfrac{53}{30} = 1.7\overline{6} \approx 1.77 siblings (1)

(b) n=30n=30 (even), so median = mean of the 1515th and 1616th values (position rule n2\frac{n}{2} and n2+1\frac{n}{2}+1). (1) Cumulative: 0→5, 1→13, 2→23. Both 15th and 16th fall in the value-2 group. (1) Median =2= 2. (1)

(c) Range = largest value − smallest value (the spread of the data). (1) Mode = 2 (highest frequency, 10). (1) Range =50=5= 5 - 0 = 5. (1)


Question 3 (9)

(a) Original values are lost once grouped, so we assume every item lies at the midpoint of its class (a uniform/central-representative assumption); this lets us estimate fx\sum fx. (2)

(b) Midpoints: 2.5, 7.5, 12.5, 17.5. (1)

fx=6(2.5)+14(7.5)+12(12.5)+8(17.5)\sum fx = 6(2.5)+14(7.5)+12(12.5)+8(17.5) =15+105+150+140=410= 15+105+150+140 = 410 (3) — 1 mark midpoints, 2 marks products/sum.

xˉ=41040=10.25\bar{x} = \dfrac{410}{40} = 10.25 kg (1)

(c) Modal class =5m<10= 5 \le m < 10 (highest frequency 14). (1) Median position =402=20= \frac{40}{2}=20th value; cumulative 6, 20 — the 20th value is the last of the second class, so median class =5m<10= 5 \le m < 10. (1)


Question 4 (7)

(a) Total = 60 people over 360°360°36060=6°\frac{360}{60}=6° per person. (1)

  • Car: 25×6=150°25 \times 6 = 150°
  • Bus: 15×6=90°15 \times 6 = 90°
  • Walk: 12×6=72°12 \times 6 = 72°
  • Cycle: 8×6=48°8 \times 6 = 48°

(3) — 1 mark per two correct angles.

(b) 150+90+72+48=360°150+90+72+48 = 360°(1) — matters because sectors must fill the whole circle; a wrong total signals an arithmetic error.

(c) 15÷4=3.7515 \div 4 = 3.754 symbols (3 full + one three-quarter symbol). (2)


Question 5 (9)

(a) All ordered pairs (a,b)(a,b) with a,b{1,...,6}a,b \in \{1,...,6\}; size =6×6=36= 6 \times 6 = 36. (2)

(b) Sum 7 outcomes: (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) = 6. (2) P(sum=7)=636=16P(\text{sum}=7)=\dfrac{6}{36}=\dfrac{1}{6}. (1)

(c) Sum ≥ 10: sum 10 = 3 ways, sum 11 = 2, sum 12 = 1 ⇒ 6 outcomes. P=636=16P=\dfrac{6}{36}=\dfrac{1}{6}. (2)

(d) P(sum9)=1P(sum10)=116=56P(\text{sum}\le 9) = 1 - P(\text{sum}\ge 10) = 1 - \dfrac{1}{6} = \dfrac{5}{6}. (1) Faster because counting all outcomes ≤ 9 means summing many rows; the complement is just one small count subtracted from 1. (1)


Question 6 (7)

(a) Positive correlation — as hours revised increases, exam score tends to increase (upward left-to-right trend). (2)

(b) (2, 90%) is an outlier (anomalous point). (1) It does not fit the trend. (1) A line of best fit should generally ignore/downweight it so it isn't dragged off the true trend. (1)

(c) Gradient =8030100=5010=5= \dfrac{80-30}{10-0} = \dfrac{50}{10} = 5. (1) Interpretation: each extra hour of revision is associated with about 5 extra percentage points on the exam. (1)


[
  {"claim":"Q2 mean of siblings = 53/30", "code":"fx=0*5+1*8+2*10+3*4+4*2+5*1; total=5+8+10+4+2+1; result = (fx==53 and total==30 and Rational(fx,total)==Rational(53,30))"},
  {"claim":"Q3 grouped estimated mean = 10.25", "code":"s=6*Rational(5,2)+14*Rational(15,2)+12*Rational(25,2)+8*Rational(35,2); result = (s==410 and Rational(s,40)==Rational(41,4))"},
  {"claim":"Q4 pie angles sum to 360", "code":"deg=6; total=25*deg+15*deg+12*deg+8*deg; result = (total==360 and 25*deg==150 and 8*deg==48)"},
  {"claim":"Q5 P(sum<=9)=5/6 via complement", "code":"pge10=Rational(6,36); result = (1-pge10==Rational(5,6) and Rational(6,36)==Rational(1,6))"},
  {"claim":"Q6 gradient of line of best fit = 5", "code":"m=Rational(80-30,10-0); result = (m==5)"}
]