6.4.2 · Stock-Market › Order Flow & Tape Reading
Order book ek live auction ledger hai. Har willing buyer post karta hai ki woh kitne shares chahta hai aur kis price par (bid side). Har willing seller bhi same karta hai (ask side). Book bas price ke hisaab se sort ki hui intentions ki ye do stacks hain. Ise achhe se padhna = market ki supply aur demand pressure ko padhna price ke actually move karne se pehle .
Ek real-time list of all resting limit orders kisi instrument ke liye, do sides mein organized:
Bid side = buyers, sorted from highest price at the top (best bid).
Ask side (ya offer ) = sellers, sorted from lowest price at the top (best ask).
Har level ek price aur wahan resting total size (quantity) dikhata hai.
Key derived quantities (inhe hum neeche first principles se build karte hain):
Best Bid = highest price jitna koi pay karne ko taiyar hai.
Best Ask = lowest price jis par koi bechne ko taiyar hai.
Spread = Best Ask − Best Bid.
Mid price = best bid aur best ask ka average.
Intuition Highest bid aur lowest ask aamne-saamne kyun hote hain
Ek buyer kam se kam pay karna chahta hai, isliye jo buyer sabse zyada pay karne ko taiyar hai woh sabse aggressive hai → woh line mein pehle fill hoga → woh bid stack ke top par hoga.
Ek seller zyada se zyada receive karna chahti hai, isliye jo seller sabse kam accept karne ko taiyar hai woh sabse aggressive hai → woh line mein pehli hai → woh ask stack ke top par hai.
Ye do sabse aggressive participants beech mein milte hain. Agar top bid kabhi bhi top ask ke barabar ya cross kar le, toh ek trade turant fire ho jaati hai aur dono orders book se nikal jaate hain. Isliye ek resting book mein best bid hamesha strictly below best ask hota hai — dono ke beech ka gap spread hai.
Maano best bid price b hai aur best ask price a hai, jahan a > b (warna trade ho jaati).
Spread. Spread simply ek side se doosri side "cross" karne ki cost hai:
S = a − b
Kyun? Agar aap abhi buy karna chahte hain toh ask a pay karna hoga; agar turant sell karo toh sirf bid b milega. Instant round-trip loss a − b hai. Woh loss hi spread hai.
Mid price. Asset ki sabse fair single "price" dono best intentions ke bilkul beech mein hoti hai:
M = 2 a + b
Average kyun? Kisi aur info ke bina, true value equally likely hai [ b , a ] mein kahin bhi hone ke liye; uniform guess ki expected value uska midpoint hoti hai.
Weighted mid (micro-price). Naive mid ignore karta hai ki har side par kitna size hai. Agar huge bid size Q b hai aur tiny ask size Q a , toh buyers dominate karte hain → fair value ask ki taraf lean karti hai. Opposite side ke size se weight karke:
M w = Q b + Q a a Q b + b Q a
Opposite side kyun? Large bid volume (Q b ) demand pressure hai jo price ko upar a ki taraf push karta hai, isliye ise a par multiply kiya jaata hai. Yeh imbalance ka first-principles measure hai.
Order-book imbalance (OBI). [ − 1 , 1 ] mein ek pure pressure ratio:
OBI = Q b + Q a Q b − Q a
OBI > 0 → zyada buyers → upward pressure. OBI < 0 → zyada sellers → downward pressure. Total se divide kyun? Normalize karne ke liye: 100 lots ka imbalance ek huge book par kuch nahi hota lekin thin book par sab kuch hota hai.
Worked example Example 1 — Spread, mid, aur cross karne ki cost
Book:
Bids (px × size)
Asks (px × size)
100.20 × 800
100.25 × 500
100.15 × 1200
100.30 × 900
Best bid b = 100.20 , best ask a = 100.25 .
Spread S = 100.25 − 100.20 = 0.05 . Yeh step kyun? Yeh do best resting orders ke beech ka price gap hai — immediate round-trip cost.
Mid M = ( 100.20 + 100.25 ) /2 = 100.225 . Kyun? Midpoint = bina size info ke sabse fair single price.
Agar main market-buy karta hoon 500 shares ka toh 100.25 pay karta hoon (poori best ask); 900 chahiye hain, toh 500@100.25 + 400@100.30 leta hoon. Kyun? Market orders book walk karte hain, har level ko top-down khate hain jab tak fill na ho jaaye.
Worked example Example 2 — Imbalance short-term drift predict karta hai
Best bid size Q b = 800 , best ask size Q a = 500 .
OBI = ( 800 − 500 ) / ( 800 + 500 ) = 300/1300 ≈ + 0.23 .
Micro-price M w = ( 100.25 ⋅ 800 + 100.20 ⋅ 500 ) /1300 = ( 80200 + 50100 ) /1300 = 130300/1300 = 100.2308 .
Yeh step kyun? Micro-price (100.2308 ) plain mid (100.225 ) se upar baith raha hai, jo bata raha hai ki buyers heavier hain — price agle tick mein upar jaane ki zyada possibility hai. Positive OBI bhi yahi bol raha hai.
Worked example Example 3 — Spoof / fake wall ko spot karna
Ek giant 50,000-lot bid achanak 100.10 par appear hoti hai (best bid se kaafi neeche), price tick up karti hai, phir 50,000 trade se pehle gayab ho jaati hai.
Suspicious kyun? Real demand fill hona chahti hai aur top ke paas baikhti hai. Ek huge order market se door place ki gayi jo cancel hoti rehti hai woh likely spoofing hai — size display karke doosron ko bait karna, kabhi trade karne ka irada nahi. Fix: displayed resting size se zyada executed trades (the tape) par trust karo.
Common mistake "Badi bid size = price definitely upar jaayegi."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: zyada buyers matlab rising demand → higher price. Intuitive supply/demand.
Kyun galat hai: displayed size fake ho sakti hai (spoofing), iceberg-hidden ho sakti hai (sirf ek slice dikhta hai), ya milliseconds mein cancel ho sakti hai. Imbalance ek probabilistic tilt hai, guarantee nahi.
Fix: OBI ko tape (actual executions) ke saath combine karo aur dekho ki size hit hone ke baad persist aur refresh hoti hai ya nahi.
Common mistake "Mid price woh price hai jis par main trade kar sakta hoon."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: ise "price" label kiya gaya hai aur yeh beech mein baith raha hai.
Kyun galat hai: aap kabhi mid par buy nahi kar sakte — aap ask par buy karte hain aur bid par sell karte hain. Mid ek reference hai, executable level nahi.
Fix: turant buy karne ke liye, ask ke liye budget rakho; spread ek real cost hai.
Common mistake "Level 1 (top of book) padhna kaafi hai."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: top bid/ask wahi hai jahan trades hoti hain.
Kyun galat hai: thin top ke saath thick second level ek thick top ke saath kuch nahi hone se bilkul alag behave karta hai. Bade order par price kitna slip karta hai, iske liye Depth matter karti hai.
Fix: kam se kam top 5 levels padho; cumulative depth assess karo.
Recall Feynman: 12-saal ke bachche ko explain karo
Ek market stall imagine karo. Left side par, bachche chillate hain ki woh kitni candies khareedenge aur zyada se zyada kya price denge — sabse loud (highest price) bachcha aage khada hota hai. Right side par, bachche chillate hain ki woh kitni candies bechenge aur kam se kam kya price lenge — sabse sasta seller aage khada hota hai. Front buyer aur front seller ek doosre ko ghoorte hain apne prices ke beech ek tiny gap ke saath; woh gap "spread" hai. Jab bhi front buyer front seller ki price maan leta hai, candy haath badal jaati hai aur dono chale jaate hain. Agar bahut zyada bacche kharidna chahte hain bechne walon se, toh price upar jaane wali hai. Woh poora chillane wala board order book hai!
"BID is what you Bring In to Deal (buyers, below); ASK is what sellers Ask Someone to Kover (above)."
Aur: B id = B elow, A sk = A bove. Spread = A sk B id → A − B (top minus, alphabetical).
Order book ki do sides kya hoti hain? Bid side (buyers, highest price on top sorted) aur ask/offer side (sellers, lowest price on top sorted).
Best bid ko define karo. Highest price jo koi bhi buyer abhi pay karne ko taiyar hai.
Best ask ko define karo. Lowest price jo koi bhi seller accept karne ko taiyar hai.
Spread ka formula? S = a − b (best ask minus best bid); immediate round-trip cost.
Mid price ka formula? M = ( a + b ) /2 , best bid aur best ask ka midpoint.
Resting book mein best bid best ask se kabhi kyun exceed nahi kar sakta? Agar karta, toh trade turant fire hoti aur un orders ko hata deti — best bid strictly below best ask rehta hai.
Order-book imbalance (OBI) ka formula? ( Q b − Q a ) / ( Q b + Q a ) ; range [ − 1 , 1 ] , positive = buy pressure.
Micro-price ko opposite side ke size se kyun weight karte hain? Large bid volume demand hai jo price ko ask ki taraf push karti hai, isliye bid size ask price par multiply hoti hai aur vice versa.
Kya aap mid price par buy kar sakte ho? Nahi — aap ask par buy karte ho, bid par sell karte ho; mid sirf ek reference hai.
Spoofing kya hai? Bade orders post karna (usually top se door) bina trade karne ke irade ke, execution se pehle cancel karna, doosre traders ko bait karne ke liye.
Market order book ke saath kya karta hai? Yeh book ko top-down walk karta hai, poore size ke fill hone tak har price level ko consume karta hai (slippage causing).
Level-1 depth padhna kyun kaafi nahi hai? Kyunki top ke peeche ki depth (levels 2-5+) determine karti hai ki bade orders par price kitna slip karta hai.
Order Flow & Tape Reading — book displayed intent hai; tape executed fact hai.
Bid-Ask Spread — yahan derive kiya gaya spread core transaction-cost measure hai.
Market Microstructure — order-book dynamics iska foundation hai.
Limit Orders vs Market Orders — limit orders book build karte hain, market orders ise consume karte hain.
Liquidity & Depth — levels ke paar cumulative size.
Spoofing & Layering — book mein visible manipulation patterns.
Slippage — multiple book levels walk karne ka direct consequence.
weighted by opposite size
Order Book: resting limit orders
Weighted mid / micro-price