Yeh formula KYUN hai? Agar tum fraction L ka nuksan karo, toh tumhara capital original ka (1−L) reh jaata hai. Wापस 1 par aane ke liye tumhe 1−L1 se multiply karna padega. Zaroori extra return woh hai minus 1.
r = capital ke fraction ke roop mein risk per trade (jaise 1% → r=0.01)
n = ek saath open trades ki sankhya
Step 1 — Ek trade ka risk.
Rupaye mein risk per trade =r⋅C.
Kyun? Tum risk-per-trade ko ek fixed fraction ke roop mein define karte ho taaki har trade "equally hurt" kare.
Step 2 — Worst-case total risk (saare stops hit).Rtotal=n⋅r⋅CKyun? Pessimistic (correlated) case mein, saari positions ek saath stop out ho jaati hain, isliye losses add ho jaate hain.
Step 3 — Portfolio limit impose karo.
Ek maximum allowable total risk Rmax=E⋅C set karo, jahan E tumhara total exposure/risk cap hai (jaise 6%).
n⋅r⋅C≤E⋅C⇒nmax=rE
Tumhare paas ek bag mein 100 candies hain (tumhare paisa). Ek game hai jisme tum candies jeet sakte ho lekin kabhi kabhi kuch gu waate bhi ho. Rule: ek saath table par zyada candies mat lagao — maano saari bets mein total 6. Iss tarah agar ek bura round aaye aur table par rakha sab kuch haar jao, toh bhi tumhare paas 94 candies bachi hain aur tum kal phir khel sakte ho. Agar tumne saari 100 table par laga di aur haar gaye, toh game over — tum bilkul nahi khel sakte. Exposure limit bas yeh hai: "main ek saath table par kitni candies rakh sakta hoon?"
Total capital ka maximum % jo kisi bhi ek waqt mein saare open positions mein at risk (ya deployed) ho sakta hai.
Exposure (deployed) aur risk (at risk) mein kya fark hai?
Deployed = committed paisa = Q⋅P; Risk = stops hit hone par lose hone wala paisa = Q⋅∣P−S∣. Tight stop matlab zyada deployment lekin kam risk.
Max concurrent positions ka formula
nmax=E/r jahan E = portfolio risk cap, r = risk per trade.
1% risk/trade aur 6% portfolio cap ke saath, kitne open trades?
0.06/0.01=6 trades.
Entry P aur stop S diye hue position size formula
Q=∣P−S∣r⋅C.
50% loss recover karne ke liye kitna gain chahiye?
100% (1−0.51−1).
Worst-case total risk n⋅r⋅C kyun hai aur kam kyun nahi?
Yeh assume karta hai ki saari positions correlated hain aur ek saath stop out ho jaati hain, isliye losses add hote hain — yeh pessimistic survival case hai.
Correlation real risk ko formula se kaise affect karta hai?
Kam correlation real risk ko n⋅r⋅C se kam karta hai; zyada correlation worst-case ko realistic banata hai.
Exposure cap kyun karo?
Losses recover karne ke liye asymmetrically bade gains chahiye; capping kisi bhi buri streak ke nuksan ko survivable rakhti hai taaki tumhara edge play out kar sake.
