4.7.3
Intuition Ek-sentence mein core baatEk maximum drawdown limit ek pehle se decide kiya hua rule hai jo kehta hai "agar mera account apne highest point se X% neeche gir jaye, toh main trading band kar deta hoon" — kyunki jitna zyada neeche girte ho, wapas chadhna utna hi exponentially mushkil ho jaata hai, aur kal bhi trade karne ke liye survive karna aaj profit squeeze karne se zyada zaroori hai.
Ek drawdown aapki equity mein woh giravat hai jo ek pehle ke peak (aapke account ki abhi tak ki sabse zyada value) se lekar baad ke trough (ek low point) tak hoti hai, jab tak koi naya peak nahi ban jaata.
Peak = abhi tak ki sabse zyada equity.Trough = us peak ke baad, recovery se pehle, sabse kam equity.Maximum Drawdown (MDD) = poore period mein sabse badi peak-to-trough giravat.
Definition Maximum Drawdown LimitEk maximum drawdown limit ek risk rule hai jo aap pehle se set karte ho : peak equity se maximum percentage loss jitna aap tolerate karne ko taiyar ho, uske baad aap trading band karte ho , size cut karte ho, ya apni strategy review karte ho.
Poora idea ek brutal fact par tika hai: losses aur gains symmetric nahi hote.
Agar aap apne capital ka ek fraction d ( 1 − d ) 1 − d 1 gain g
( 1 − d ) ( 1 + g ) = 1
g
1 + g = 1 − d 1 ⇒ g = 1 − d d
Dekho g d
Drawdown d
Recovery g = 1 − d d
10%
11.1%
20%
25.0%
50%
100% (double!)
90%
900% (10×!)
Intuition Asymmetry unfair kyun lagti haiPercentage down ek bade number par compute hoti hai (aapka peak), lekin percentage up ek chhote number par compute hoti hai (jo bacha hai). Chhota base matlab pakadne ke liye ek bahut bada percentage chahiye. Isi liye drawdown limit base ko pehle protect karti hai — jab tak woh shrink nahi hua ho.
Worked example Example 1 — Equity curve se MDD compute karo6 dinon mein equity: 100 , 120 , 90 , 110 , 80 , 130
Running peak aur drawdown track karo:
Day
Equity
Peak
D D t
1
100
100
0%
2
120
120
0%
3
90
120
( 120 − 90 ) /120 = 25%
4
110
120
( 120 − 110 ) /120 = 8.3%
5
80
120
( 120 − 80 ) /120 = 33.3%
6
130
130
0% (new peak)
MDD = 33.3% (day 5).
Yeh step kyun? Hum hamesha abhi tak ke sabse zyada peak (120) se compare karte hain, kal ki value se nahi — sabse gehra zakham sabse zyade peak se measure hota hai jo us se pehle tha.
Worked example Example 2 — Recovery ki zarooratAapka account 33.3% gira (Example 1 se). Break even ke liye gain?
g = 1 − 0.333 0.333 = 0.667 0.333 = 0.50 = 50% Yeh step kyun? d = 0.333 g = 1 − d d
Worked example Example 3 — Ek rule ke roop mein limit set karnaAap decide karte ho MDD limit = 20%. Peak equity = ₹5,00,000.
Stop-trading level = 5 , 00 , 000 × ( 1 − 0.20 ) = ₹4 , 00 , 000 Yeh step kyun? Humne ek percentage rule ko ek actual rupee tripwire mein convert kiya jise aap live dekh sakte ho.
Recall Jawab padhne se pehle predict karoEk trader losses ko 50% drawdown tak run hone deta hai. Phir sochta hai: "Mujhe recover karne ke liye sirf 50% gain chahiye." Kya woh sahi hai? Pehle forecast karo, phir g = 1 − d d
Jawab: Galat. g = 1 − 0.5 0.5 = 0.5 0.5 = 1.0 = 100% double karna hoga, 50% gain nahi. Yahi galat andaaza exact wajah hai drawdown limits exist karti hain.
Common mistake "30% loss ke liye sirf 30% gain chahiye recover karne ke liye."Kyun sahi lagta hai: Symmetry hamare brain ka default hai — 30 neeche, 30 upar, wapas start par. Percentages lagta hai cancel ho jaane chahiye.
Fix: Woh sirf usi base par rupees mein cancel hote hain, alag-alag bases par percentages mein nahi. 30% neeche bade peak par hai; recovery % sima gaye remainder par hai. g = 1 − d d 42.9% gain chahiye.
Common mistake "Main apni drawdown limit bahut badi (60%) set karunga taaki kabhi stopped out na houn."Kyun sahi lagta hai: Loose limit matlab zyada room, kam annoying halts, freedom jaisi feeling.
Fix: 60% DD ko recover karne ke liye 150% return chahiye — zyaatar strategies kabhi wapas nahi aatein. Limit survival ke liye hai, comfort ke liye nahi. Tight limits (10–20%) recovery ko mathematically feasible rakhte hain.
Common mistake "Drawdown wahan se measure hota hai jahan se maine start kiya."Kyun sahi lagta hai: "Main apni deposit se kitna neeche hoon" — yahi number log baat karte hain.
Fix: MDD running peak se measure hota hai, kyunki yahi woh height hai jahan se psychological aur mathematical giravat hoti hai. Start se measure karna mid-run damage chhupa leta hai.
Intuition Agar sirf do cheezein yaad rakhni hain
g = 1 − d d Limit pehle se set karo aur usse honor karo — drawdown limit tabhi kaam karti hai jab woh emotions aane se pehle decide ki gayi ho, aur yeh action trigger kare (stop/size reduce karo).
Mnemonic "Deep Holes Dig Deeper"D rawdown = H ighest peak se giravat; jitna zyada D eep jaate ho, utna hi D eeper recovery hole — toh jaldi cap karo. (D-H-D-D)
Recall Feynman: 12-saal ke bachche ko explain karoSocho tum ek ladder par chadh rahe ho aur gir jaate ho. Agar tum step 10 se step 5 par gire, toh aadhe steps gire. Lekin wapas upar jaane ke liye, tumhe phir se 5 steps chadhne hain — aur step 5 se, yeh tumhari current height ko double karna hai! Jitna upar the aur jitna zyada gire, wapas chadhna utna exhausting. Ek drawdown limit toh woh hai jaise tumhara parent keh raha ho: "Agar tum step 8 se neeche phislo, ruko aur rest karo — aur neeche mat giro, kyunki neeche se wapas chadhna almost impossible hai." Chhoti phislan theek karna aasaan hai; badi giravat almost kabhi theek nahi hoti. Isliye tum apne aap ko bahut neeche girne se pehle protect karte ho.
Drawdown kya hota hai? Equity mein percentage giravat jo ek pehle ke peak se baad ke trough tak hoti hai, jab tak naya peak nahi ban jaata.
Maximum Drawdown (MDD) kya hota hai? Ek period mein sabse badi peak-to-trough equity decline, jo (Peak − Trough)/Peak se measure hoti hai.
Maximum drawdown limit kya hota hai? Ek pre-set rule jo peak equity se sabse bada % fall batata hai jo aap tolerate karoge — trading rokne ya size cut karne se pehle.
Drawdown d se recover karne ke liye gain ka formula? g = d/(1−d).
20% drawdown ke baad recovery gain kitna chahiye? 25% (0.20/0.80).
50% drawdown ke baad recovery gain kitna chahiye? 100% — jo bacha hai use double karna padega.
Losses aur gains asymmetric kyun hote hain? Loss % bade peak base par hoti hai; recovery % chhote surviving base par hoti hai, isliye pakadne ke liye zyada % chahiye.
Time t par drawdown kis relative measure hota hai? Running maximum (peak) equity us time tak, starting equity se nahi.
Tight drawdown limit (10–20%) prefer kyun karein? Recovery mathematically feasible rehti hai (25% ya kam); loose limits (jaise 60%) impractical 150% returns maangti hain.
Peak = ₹5,00,000, MDD limit 20%: kis equity par rukoge? ₹4,00,000 = 5,00,000 × (1 − 0.20).
Peak equity - highest so far
Max Drawdown Limit - stop rule
Recovery gain g = d div 1-d
DD = Peak - Equity div Peak
