4.5.8
Intuition Ek saansi mein core ideaTum control nahi kar sakte ki ek single trade jeetegi ya haaregi — woh toh noise hai. Lekin tum apna risk unit (R) ZAROOR control kar sakte ho aur apne outcomes ko us unit ke multiples mein measure kar sakte ho. Jab har trade R mein measure hoti hai, toh jeet aur haar comparable "chips" ban jaati hain, aur expectancy batati hai ki poora system average mein har bet pe kitni chips deta hai. Ek positive expectancy system bohot saari trades mein paisa banata hai, chahe woh jeetne se zyada haare.
R woh paisa hai jo tum ek trade mein khone ke liye tayyar ho agar stop-loss hit ho jaaye. Yeh entry se pehle fix hota hai.
R = ( Entry Price − Stop Price ) × Position Size 1-unit of risk hai. Baaki sab kuch isi se relative measure hota hai.
WHY define R at all?
Kyunki alag-alag trades ke dollar amounts comparable nahi hote. Ek ₹10,000 position pe ₹500 ka loss aur ek ₹1,00,000 position pe ₹500 ka loss — dono ka matlab bahut alag hota hai. Outcomes ko R ke multiples mein express karke, har trade ko same scale pe laaya jaata hai, chahe price, share count, ya account size kuch bhi ho.
Worked example R Set KarnaTum ek stock ₹200 pe khareedte ho, stop ₹190 pe, 100 shares ke saath.
Risk per share = 200 − 190 = ₹10
R = 10 × 100 = ₹1000
Yeh step kyun? R stop tak ki distance se define hoti hai, entry price se nahi. Stop woh jagah hai jahan tumhara idea galat sabit hota hai, toh wahan ka loss = 1 full unit of risk.
Worked example Exit ko R-multiple mein Convert KarnaSame trade. Tum ₹230 pe sell karte ho.
Profit = ( 230 − 200 ) × 100 = ₹3000
R -multiple = 3000/1000 = + 3 R
Yeh step kyun? Hum R (₹1000) se divide karte hain, entry cost se nahi, kyunki R humara chosen yardstick of risk hai. Is trade ne 3 units of risk return kiya.
Worked example Ek Loss Jo Full Loss Nahi HaiTum nervous ho jaate ho aur ₹195 pe exit kar dete ho stop hit hone se pehle.
Loss = ( 195 − 200 ) × 100 = − ₹500
R -multiple = − 500/1000 = − 0.5 R
Yeh step kyun? Early exit karne se loss aadhe unit pe cut ho gaya. Notice karo R ₹1000 hi rehta hai (entry pe define hua) — actual loss 1R se chhota ya bada ho sakta hai.
Hum chahte hain: average mein, har trade pe main kitna R banata hoon?
Maano kai saari trades mein:
Win rate = W = 1 − W
Average winning trade = + A w
Average losing trade = − A ℓ A ℓ
Step 1 — kisi bhi cheez ka average = probability-weighted sum of outcomes.
E = ( P(win) × avg win ) + ( P(loss) × avg loss )
Step 2 — apne symbols lagao.
E = W ⋅ A w − ( 1 − W ) ⋅ A ℓ [ in units of R ]
Minus sign kyun? Losing trades R subtract karti hain, toh unka contribution negative hota hai. A ℓ magnitude hai; sign explicitly carry kiya jaata hai.
Intuition Compute karne se pehle Predict KaroEk system 40% time jeetta hai. Winners average + 2 R − 1 R Andaza lagao: profitable hai ya nahi? Bahut log kehte hain "60% time haarta hai → bura system."
Ab verify karo:
E = 0.40 ( 2 ) − 0.60 ( 1 ) = 0.8 − 0.6 = + 0.2 R Positive! 100 trades mein R = ₹1000 ≈ 0.2 × 1000 × 100 = ₹20 , 000
Worked example Ek High Win-Rate LOSEREk system 90% time jeetta hai (+0.5R winners) lekin 10% losers − 6 R E = 0.90 ( 0.5 ) − 0.10 ( 6 ) = 0.45 − 0.60 = − 0.15 R Yeh kyun matter karta hai: "10 mein se 9 baar sahi hona" emotionally addictive lagta hai, lekin rare huge losses account destroy kar dete hain. Isliye losses cut karna (A ℓ
Common mistake "High win rate = good system."Kyun sahi lagta hai: Aksar sahi hona skill jaisa lagta hai, aur hum losing streaks se nafrat karte hain. Fix: Win rate akela meaningless hai. Expectancy = win rate wins vs losses ke size se weighted . 3:1 payoff wala 40% system, tiny wins aur giant losses wale 90% system se behtar hai.
Common mistake R ko stop ki jagah entry price se measure karna.Kyun sahi lagta hai: Entry price woh number hai jo tumne "pay" kiya, toh woh central lagta hai. Fix: R = stop tak ki distance × size. Yeh invested paisa nahi, risk mein paisa hai.
Common mistake Entry ke baad R change karna (loss se bachne ke liye stop door le jaana).Kyun sahi lagta hai: "Trade wapas aayega." Fix: R entry pe fix hota hai. Stop wide karna secretly ek − 1 R − 3 R
Common mistake Per-trade expectancy ko per-day profit se confuse karna.Kyun sahi lagta hai: Tum daily income jaanna chahte ho. Fix: Expectancy per trade averaged over MANY trades hai. Chhote samples wildly swing karte hain; number sirf dozens/hundreds of trades ke baad dikhta hai.
Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bachche ko samjhaoSocho ki har bet mein tum exactly ek candy risk karte ho. Kabhi tum 2 candies jeette ho, kabhi apni 1 candy haarte ho. Agar tum sau baar khelo, expectancy batata hai ki har game ke liye tumhare paas average mein end mein kitni candies hongi. Chahe tum zyada games haaro, agar tumhari jeetein bade candy piles deti hain aur tumhara loss sirf ek candy hai, tum zyada candy le kar ghar jaate ho. Trick hai: ek bure game ko kabhi poora candy ka bag mat koshto — hamesha sirf ek risk karo.
"Win Big, Lose One R." — Har loss ko − 1 R W inners W eighted minus L osers L oaded → W A w − ( 1 − W ) A ℓ
Trading mein R kya hota hai? Woh fixed paisa jo tum khone ke liye tayyar ho agar stop hit ho; R = ( Entry − Stop ) × Size
R-multiple kaise compute karte hain? Trade ka profit ya loss R se divide karo. Full stop-out = − 1 R + 2 R
R mein expectancy formula likhlo. E = W ⋅ A w − ( 1 − W ) ⋅ A ℓ W A w A ℓ
Kya 40% win rate wala system profitable ho sakta hai? Haan. Jaise 0.4 ( 2 R ) − 0.6 ( 1 R ) = + 0.2 R
Results ko rupees ki jagah R mein kyun measure karte hain? Har trade ko same risk scale pe laane ke liye, chahe price, share count, ya account size kuch bhi ho, taaki outcomes comparable ho sakein.
Positive expectancy ka matlab kya hai? Har trade average mein positive R return karti hai, toh kai trades mein E × R × N
N trades mein expected profit ≈ ? E × R × N
90% win-rate system phir bhi paisa kyun khoh sakta hai? Agar rare 10% losers huge hain (jaise − 6 R 0.9 ( 0.5 ) − 0.1 ( 6 ) = − 0.15 R
Entry ke baad stop wide karne se expectancy ka kya hota hai? Tumhara real R badhta hai, ek − 1 R
Break-even expectancy value? E = 0
Position Sizing — R decide karta hai ki fixed % risk ke liye kitne shares kharidne hain.Stop-Loss Placement — stop R define karta hai; bure stops sab kuch distort karte hain.Risk-Reward Ratio — A w : A ℓ Win Rate vs Payoff — woh trade-off jo low-win systems ko viable banata hai.Trading Journal — jahan R-multiples log hote hain real expectancy measure karne ke liye.Law of Large Numbers — isliye expectancy sirf kai trades ke baad manifest hoti hai.
System profits over many trades
Win rate below 50 percent
