4.5.7
Intuition Ek-line ka ideaEk trade basically ek aise bet jaisi hai jisme upar aur neeche ki potential equal nahi hoti . Risk–reward ratio (RRR) measure karta hai ki aap kitna khone wale hain aur kitna paane wale hain . At least 1:2 par insist karne ka matlab hai: har ₹1 ke risk par, aap kam se kam ₹2 banana chahte hain. Isse aap zyada baar galat hote hue bhi paisa bana sakte hain .
Definition Risk–Reward RatioEk single trade mein potential loss (risk) aur potential gain (reward) ka ratio, jo aapki entry price se aapke stop-loss aur target ke zariye measure hota hai.
RRR = Reward Risk = ∣ Target − Entry ∣ ∣ Entry − Stop ∣ 1 : R ke roop mein, jahan R = Risk Reward minimum 1:2 setup ka matlab hai ==R ≥ 2
Risk (per share) = entry se stop-loss tak ka distance.Reward (per share) = entry se target tak ka distance.
Maano kai trades mein aapki win rate W R = 1
Expected profit per trade (expectancy):
E = W ⋅ R − ( 1 − W ) ⋅ 1
Ye formula kyu? Winners W R ( 1 − W ) 1
Break-even wo jagah hai jahan E = 0 W ⋅ R − ( 1 − W ) = 0 ⇒ W ( R + 1 ) = 1 ⇒ W be = R + 1 1
Intuition 1:2 sweet spot kyu haiR = 2 3 mein se 1 trade jeetnee hai. 40–45% jeetnaa (jo bahut achievable hai) tab solid profit deta hai. Yahi poora point hai: RRR aapko margin for error deta hai.
Worked example Example 1 — Ek long tradeEntry ₹100, Stop ₹95, Target ₹110.
Risk = 100 − 95 = ₹5 Kyu? Stop ke neeche aap exit karte ho — max loss per share.
Reward = 110 − 100 = ₹10 Kyu? Target wo jagah hai jahan aap profit book karte ho.
R = 10/5 = 2 1:2 ✅ minimum meet karta hai.
Worked example Example 2 — Ek buri trade reject karoEntry ₹200, Stop ₹190, Target ₹215.
Risk = ₹10 = ₹15 R = 1.5 1:1.5 ❌.
Reject kyu karein? Break-even ke liye W = 1/ ( 1.5 + 1 ) = 40%
Worked example Example 3 — Expectancy check1:2 system, win rate 40%, 100 trades mein ₹500/trade risk.
E = 0.40 ( 2 ) − 0.60 ( 1 ) = 0.8 − 0.6 = + 0.2 Rupees mein: 0.2 × ₹500 = + ₹100 ⇒ 100 trades mein +₹10,000 .
60% trades lose karne ke bawajood positive kyu? Bade winners chhote losers se zyada hote hain.
Common mistake "Sabse zyada jo matter karta hai wo hai higher win rate."Kyu sahi lagta hai: Jeetnaa achha feel hota hai; 70% win rate sunne mein elite lagta hai.
Flaw: 1:0.3 RRR par 70% win rate bhi paisa lose karti hai — E = 0.7 ( 0.3 ) − 0.3 ( 1 ) = − 0.09 Fix: Ek system ko expectancy = W R − ( 1 − W )
Common mistake "Main apna target widen kar lunga taaki 1:2 force ho jaye."Kyu sahi lagta hai: Ek door target instantly math ko 1:2 bata deta hai.
Flaw: Agar target unrealistic hai (past resistance, koi room nahi), to wo rarely fill hota hai — aapki actual win rate collapse ho jaati hai.
Fix: Pehle target logical level par set karo (resistance/support); uske baad check karo ki RRR ≥ 2 hai ya nahi. Agar nahi, to trade skip karo.
Common mistake "RRR current price use karta hai, stop nahi."Kyu sahi lagta hai: Log eyeball karte hain "ye kitna upar ya neeche ja sakta hai."
Flaw: Risk aapke stop-loss se define hota hai, wo price jis par aap actually out hote ho — koi vague feeling nahi.
Fix: Hamesha risk = |Entry − Stop| measure karo, ek fixed, mechanical distance.
Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bachche ko explain karoEk coin-flip game imagine karo. Agar tum haarte ho to ₹1 dete ho, lekin agar jeette ho to ₹2 milte hain. Chahe coin thodi der ke liye tumhare liye unlucky rahe aur tum sirf 10 mein se 4 baar jeeto, fir bhi tum amir hote jaaoge, kyunki wo 4 jeetein (₹8) us 6 haar (₹6) ko beat karti hain. Risk–reward 1:2 ka matlab hai sirf wahi games khelna jahan prize kam se kam price se double ho. Is tarah tum bahut zyada galat ho sakte ho aur fir bhi overall jeet sakte ho.
Risk–reward ratio ka formula kya hai? ∣ Target − Entry ∣ ∣ Entry − Stop ∣
"Minimum 1:2" ka kya matlab hai? Reward kam se kam risk se double ho; R ≥ 2
Reward multiple R ke liye break-even win rate kya hai? W b e = R + 1 1
1:2 trade ke liye break-even win rate? 1/3 ≈ 33.3%
1:1 trade ke liye break-even win rate? 50%.
Expectancy formula per trade (loss = 1 unit)? E = W R − ( 1 − W )
Entry 100, Stop 95, Target 110 → RRR? Risk 5, Reward 10, toh 1:2.
1:2 system 60% trades lose karte hue bhi profit kyu kar sakta hai? Kyunki winners losers se 2× pay karte hain; E = 0.4 ( 2 ) − 0.6 = + 0.2 > 0
Win rate akela ek misleading metric kyu hai? High win rate ke saath tiny reward aur large risk ka combination negative expectancy de sakta hai.
Pehle target set karo ya RRR check karo? Pehle logical target/stop set karo, phir check karo ki RRR ≥ 2 hai; ratio force karne ke liye target kabhi inflate mat karo.
Stop-Loss Placement — ratio ka risk side define karta hai.Setting Price Targets — ratio ka reward side define karta hai.Position Sizing & the 1% Rule — RRR ko share quantity mein convert karta hai.Expectancy & Win Rate — 1:2 ke liye statistical justification.Support and Resistance — jahan logical targets/stops actually baithe hain.Trade Journaling — realized RRR ko planned RRR se track karo.
only need 33 percent wins
