Understand target setting and profit booking

4.5.5 · Stock-Market › Entry, Exit & Trade Management

WHY iska matter karta hai?

WHY target set karna zaroori hai? Teen reasons:

Greed control — bina pre-set target ke, "thoda aur" ki feeling aapko khinchti rehti hai jab tak move reverse na ho jaaye.
Risk–reward math — reward calculate tabhi ho sakta hai jab aap define karo ki reward kahan khatam hota hai.
Consistency — ek mechanical target results ko measurable aur repeatable banata hai.

WHAT hota hai ek target? (Reward-to-Risk ke first principles)

WHY rupees ki jagah R use karte hain? Kyunki R har trade ko normalise karta hai. ₹2 risk wali trade aur ₹20 risk wali trade directly comparable ban jaati hain jab dono ko R mein measure karo.

WHY RRR win-rate se connected hai (breakeven law)

HOW karte hain target set (methods)

Structure-based — agla swing high / resistance / supply zone.
Measured move — pattern ek projection deta hai (jaise, flagpole ki height breakout par add karo).
RRR-based — ek fixed multiple choose karo (2R, 3R) chart se independent hokar.
ATR / volatility-based — target $= E + k \cdot ATR$ taaki yeh scale ho stock ki actual movement ke saath.
Indicator-based — trailing tools (moving average, chandelier stop) jo winners ko run karne dete hain.

Figure — Understand target setting and profit booking

HOW book karte hain profit (teen styles)

Common Mistakes (Steel-manned)

Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bacche ko explain karo

Socho tum nimbu paani bech rahe ho aur koi kehta hai "agar mausam zyada garam hua toh main zyada paisa dunga." Tum nahi jaante kitna garam hoga, toh shuru hone se pehle decide karo: "Agar mujhe ₹100 profit mila, toh ruk jaunga aur khush hokar ghar jaunga." Woh number tumhara target hai. Jab tum sach mein ₹100 lete ho aur wahan se chale jaate ho, toh woh hai profit booking — paisa ab sach mein tumhara hai aur gayab nahi ho sakta. Agar tum "bas thoda aur" ke liye rukoge, toh ek baarish ka badal (market ka reverse hona) tumhara paisa wapas le sakta hai. Samajhdaar sellers toh split bhi karte hain: chhoti jeet par aadha paisa le lo, baaki bechte raho dekhne ke liye ki aur garam hota hai — lekin ek rule ke saath ki thanda hone ka ishara milte hi woh chale jaate hain.

Connections

Risk-Reward Ratio
Stop-Loss Placement
Position Sizing
Support and Resistance
ATR (Average True Range)
Trailing Stop-Loss
Expectancy and Win-Rate
Trade Journaling

Flashcards

Paper profit aur realised profit mein kya fark hai?

Paper profit woh unrealised gain hai jo position open hote waqt dikhta hai (gayab ho sakta hai); realised profit sirf tab lock hota hai jab tum trade close karo.

Long trade ka target formula given Entry E, Stop S, aur RRR b?

T = E + b \times (E - S)

Risk (R) per share define karo.

R = ∣ Entry - Stop-loss ∣

, stop tak ki distance.

Reward-to-risk b ke liye breakeven win-rate kya hai?

W_{b e} = \frac{1}{1 + b}

; jaise b=2 → 33%.

RRR = 2 par minimum kitni win-rate chahiye profitable rehne ke liye?

Lagbhag 33% (1/3).

"Scaling out" kya hai?

Multiple targets par parts mein profit book karna jabki runner rakho, gains lock karne ke liye aur phir bhi upside capture karne ke liye.

Targets ko rupees ki jagah R-multiples mein kyun express karte hain?

R har trade ko normalise karta hai taaki alag-alag size ki trades directly comparable ho sakein.

Trade expectancy formula?

E = W \cdot (avg win) - (1 - W) \cdot (avg loss)

40% win-rate system with RRR 2 — expectancy R mein kya hogi?

0.4 (2) - 0.6 (1) = + 0.2 R

per trade.

Partial booking ke baad trade ko "risk-free" banane ke liye kya karte hain?

Stop-loss ko breakeven (entry price) par move karo.

Long ke liye ATR-based target formula?

T = E + k \cdot ATR

, target ko real volatility ke saath scale karo.

Bahut low RRR dangerous kyun hai even high win-rate ke saath?

Breakeven win-rate bahut badh jaati hai (RRR 0.5 ko ~66.7% chahiye); losses ki normal streak bahut saari chhoti wins wipe kar sakti hai.