4.5.3
Stop-loss "woh point nahi hai jahan main haar maanta hoon." Yeh woh price hai jo prove karti hai ki mera trade idea galat tha . Agar price wahan pahunch jaaye, toh jis reason se aapne entry li thi, woh reason ab exist nahi karta — isliye aapko bahar nikalna hi padega. Placement ke baare mein sab kuch ek sawaal se nikalta hai: "Kis price par mera setup invalidate ho jaata hai?" Stop wahan lagao jahan market kahti hai "tum galat ho," na wahan jahan tumhari wallet kahti hai "bas itna hi lose kar sakta hoon."
Ek pre-defined price jis par aap ek losing trade se automatically exit karte ho, us position ka loss cap karte hue. Yeh ek unbounded, emotional loss ko ek bounded, pre-decided loss mein convert karta hai.
WHY it matters (survival ka math): losses aapke against asymmetrically compound hote hain. Fraction L
g = 1 − L L
Derivation from scratch: Agar aap fraction L C ( 1 − L ) C g C ( 1 − L ) ( 1 + g ) = C C
( 1 − L ) ( 1 + g ) = 1 ⟹ 1 + g = 1 − L 1 ⟹ g = 1 − L 1 − 1 = 1 − L L
Worked example Why a stop matters numerically
10% lose karo (L = 0.10 g = 0.10/0.90 = 11.1%
50% lose karo (L = 0.50 g = 0.50/0.50 = 100%
Why this step? Kyunki recovery curve convex hai — chote stops aapko near-linear region mein rakhte hain; bade losses aapko steep part mein dhakel dete hain jahan recovery almost impossible ho jaati hai.
Har stop method in sawaalon ko alag order mein answer karta hai:
Setup kahan invalidate hota hai? (structure)Kitna noise tolerate karna padega? (volatility)Kitna paisa risk kar sakta hoon? (position sizing)
Golden rule: pehle structure/volatility se stop choose karo, PHIR position size karo taaki money-risk tumhare rules mein fit ho — kabhi ulta mat karo.
Definition Structural stopEk key swing high/low ya support/resistance level ke thoda bahar lagaya jaata hai, plus ek chota buffer, taaki wahan pahunchna matlab clearly chart structure toot gayi ho.
HOW: Long entry ke liye, sabse recent meaningful swing low S
Stop = S − b
jahan b
Ek fixed ₹ ya fixed % stop ignore karta hai ki yeh particular stock kitna breathe karta hai. Ek stock jo ₹10/din swing karta hai, woh ek ₹3 stop ko pure noise se hit kar dega. ATR stop aapka stop us instrument ki apni heartbeat ke hisaab se scale karta hai.
Definition ATR (Average True Range)N True Range ka average. Ek bar ke liye True Range:
TR = max ( H − L , ∣ H − C prev ∣ , ∣ L − C prev ∣ ) ATR N = N 1 ∑ i = 1 N TR i
WHY teen terms? H − L gaps capture karte hain — agar market raat bhar jump ki, toh real movement mein yesterday ke close C prev
HOW place karein: Long ke liye,
Stop = Entry − k ⋅ ATR , k ∈ [ 1.5 , 3 ]
Entry ₹200, ATR = ₹4, multiplier k = 2
Stop = 200 − 2 ( 4 ) = ₹192 = ₹8
Why this step? 2 × directional move (random wobble nahi) isko hit karta hai.
Stop = Entry × ( 1 − p ) , p = chosen %
Simple, lekin structure-blind . Best as a cap ("kisi bhi position mein 8% se zyada risk mat karo") jo ek structural stop ke upar lagaya jaaye, primary method ki tarah nahi.
Worked example Full workflowCapital C = ₹1 , 00 , 000 f = 1% R = ₹1000
Shares = 1000/8 = 125
Why this step? Stop distance structure/volatility se aayi; share count adjust hota hai taaki money risk hamesha ₹1000 rahe, chahe stop distance kuch bhi ho. Wide stop → kam shares, tight stop → zyada shares. Risk constant rehta hai.
Common mistake Steel-manning the classic errors(1) "Main tight stop lagaaonga taaki kam paisa lose karun."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: chota ₹ distance = per share chota loss, safer lagta hai.
Kyun galat hai: noise band ke andar stop random wiggles se hit ho jaata hai; tum hazaar chote cuts se mar jaate ho even jab tumhari direction sahi ho. Fix: stop structure/ATR se lagao, phir share count kam karo paisa control karne ke liye.
(2) "Stop ko round number jaise ₹200 pe lagaa dete hain."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: round numbers clean lagte hain. Kyun galat hai: sabke stops round numbers par cluster hote hain, toh price unhe hunt karti hai. Fix: stops obvious levels ke bahar lagao, unpar nahi.
(3) "Stop ko aur door le jaate hain kyunki mujhe yakeen hai yeh wapas aayega."
Kyun sahi lagta hai: aapke ego aur position ko protect karta hai. Kyun galat hai: yeh fixed-risk math tod deta hai — ab aapka loss unbounded hai. Fix: ek stop entry ke baad sirf usi direction mein move hota hai jo risk reduce kare (trailing), kabhi widen nahi hota.
Ek baar profit mein ho, stop ko upar ratchet karo (longs ke liye) gains lock karne ke liye: e.g. Chandelier Exit :
Stop t = ( Highest High since entry ) − k ⋅ ATR
Stop sirf badhta hai, kabhi girta nahi — profit protect karta hai jabki trend ko room deta hai.
Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bachche ko explain karoSocho tum ek kite udaa rahe ho. Stop-loss woh dauri ki lambai hai jo tum dene ko taiyaar ho pehle yeh decide karne se ki "yeh hawa bahut paagal hai, main isko reel in karta hoon." Dauri ki lambai tum apni thakaan se nahi chunte (tumhara paisa) — tum isko choose karte ho hawa kitni gusty hai (stock ki wiggle) aur trees kahan hain (support/resistance) se. Agar hawa wild hai, zyada dauri do lekin kam kite pakdo. Agar shaant hai, choti dauri theek hai. Aur jab kite oopar safe ud jaaye, tab aahista aahista slack reel in karo taaki achanak ki jhatke se woh trees mein na gir jaaye — lekin tum kabhi zyada dauri nahi dete sirf is ummeed mein ki hawa khud theek ho jaayegi.
"SAP the trade": S tructure pehle, A TR noise ke liye, P osition-size paison ke liye. Aur: "Stops wahan lagao jahan tum GALAT ho, size decide karta hai tum KITNA LOSE karte ho."
Konsa ek sawaal stop-loss placement decide karta hai? "Kis price par mera trade idea invalidate hota hai?" — structure stop decide karta hai, woh paisa nahi jo tum afford kar sako lose karna.
Loss fraction L ke baad recovery gain kitna chahiye? g = L / ( 1 − L )
Rupee-risk R aur stop distance d se position size ka formula? Shares = R / d R = f ⋅ C d = ∣ Entry − Stop ∣
True Range mein teen terms ka max kyun lete hain? Overnight gaps capture karne ke liye — real movement aaj ke high–low range se zyada ho sakti hai.
Long ke liye ATR stop formula? Stop = − k ⋅ k
Fixed tight stop kyun dangerous hai? Yeh normal noise ke andar baithta hai, toh random wiggles aapko eject kar deti hain even jab direction sahi ho.
Entry ke baad stop kaise move kiya ja sakta hai? Sirf risk reduce karne ke liye (profit direction mein trailing), kabhi widen nahi karna.
Reward-to-risk ratio ka formula? ∣ Target − Entry ∣/∣ Entry − Stop ∣
Long ke liye Chandelier trailing stop? Highest-High-since-entry − k ⋅
Wide stop vs tight stop — risk constant rakhne ke liye kya change hota hai? Shares ki sankhya: wider stop → kam shares, tighter stop → zyada shares.
Position Sizing & Risk Management Support and Resistance Levels Average True Range (ATR) Reward-to-Risk Ratio & Expectancy Trailing Stops & Exit Strategies Trade Journaling & Reviewing Mistakes
At what price is setup wrong
