3.1.10Charts, Trends & Dow Theory

Learn about log vs linear price scales

1,819 words8 min readdifficulty · medium

WHAT is a price scale?


WHY does this matter? (Derivation from first principles)

Let price be PP and screen-height be yy.

Linear rule. We choose yy to be proportional to price: y=kPy = kP Then a move from P1P_1 to P2P_2 has screen distance Δy=k(P2P1).\Delta y = k(P_2 - P_1). So equal \ moves → equal distance. A 10movelooksthesameeverywhere.Whyisthisbadforlongcharts?Becausea10 move looks the same everywhere. *Why is this bad for long charts?* Because a 10 move is a huge deal at 20(+50%)buttrivialat20 (+50\%) but trivial at2000 (+0.5%), yet they look identical.

Log rule. Now choose yy to be proportional to the logarithm of price: y=klnP.y = k\ln P. The screen distance of a move is Δy=k(lnP2lnP1)=kln ⁣P2P1.\Delta y = k(\ln P_2 - \ln P_1) = k\ln\!\frac{P_2}{P_1}.

Consequence for exponential growth. Suppose a stock compounds at rate rr per year: P(t)=P0ert.P(t) = P_0\,e^{rt}. On a linear axis this curves upward faster and faster (unreadable early history). On a log axis: y=klnP(t)=kln ⁣(P0ert)=klnP0+krt.y = k\ln P(t) = k\ln\!\big(P_0 e^{rt}\big) = k\ln P_0 + k r\,t.


Figure — Learn about log vs linear price scales

HOW to read them in practice


Common mistakes (Steel-man → Fix)


Recall Feynman: explain to a 12-year-old

Imagine a ladder. On a normal (linear) ladder, every rung is 1 foot apart — good for measuring how many feet you climbed. But money doesn't grow by feet, it grows by multiplying. So we build a magic (log) ladder where each rung means "twice as much money" instead of "one more dollar." On this magic ladder, going from 1to1 to 2 is the same size step as going from 1000to1000 to 2000 — because both doubled your money. That's why grown-ups use the magic ladder for charts that span many years: it shows how much richer you got in percent, not just in dollars.


Active-recall flashcards

#flashcards/stock-market

What does equal distance represent on a linear price scale?
Equal absolute (dollar/point) change.
What does equal distance represent on a log price scale?
Equal percentage (ratio) change.
On a log scale, screen distance of a move equals what expression?
kln(P2/P1)k\ln(P_2/P_1) — depends only on the price ratio.
Why does constant % growth appear as a straight line on a log chart?
Because y=kln(P0ert)=klnP0+krty=k\ln(P_0 e^{rt}) = k\ln P_0 + kr\,t, which is linear in tt with slope krkr.
On a log chart, what does the slope of a straight trend line tell you?
The growth rate rr (times constant kk).
204020\to40 vs 200240200\to240: which is the bigger move on a log scale?
204020\to40 (+100%, ln2=0.693\ln2=0.693) beats 200240200\to240 (+20%, ln1.2=0.182\ln1.2=0.182).
Why do log and linear look similar over tiny ranges?
Because ln(1+x)x\ln(1+x)\approx x for small xx, so % moves ≈ $ moves.
For decades-long index history, which scale should you use and why?
Log, so early and recent eras are comparably visible as percent moves rather than being dwarfed by large recent numbers.
On a log chart the gridlines 10, 100, 1000 are spaced how?
Equally — each step is ×10.
Does a log chart change the actual price data?
No — only the axis spacing; the plotted prices are real prices.

Connections

  • Charts, Trends & Dow Theory
  • Support and Resistance — trendlines are more reliable on the correct scale
  • Dow Theory — trends over long horizons are best read on log scale
  • Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)P=P0ertP=P_0 e^{rt} is the log-linear model
  • Percentage vs Absolute Returns
  • Reading Long-Term Index Charts

Concept Map

type

type

equal distance for

equal distance for

distance formula

depends only on

matches how

plotted on log becomes

straightens

slope reveals

distorts

Price scale maps price to screen height

Linear scale y = kP

Log scale y = k ln P

Equal dollar moves

Equal percent moves

dy = k ln of P2 over P1

Price ratio

Investors think in returns

Exponential growth P = P0 e^rt

Straight line slope kr

Growth rate r

Hinglish (regional understanding)

Intuition Hinglish mein samjho

Dekho, chart ke y-axis (price wale side) ko do tareeke se draw kar sakte ho. Linear scale me equal dollar/point ka move barabar height leta hai — yaani 10se10 se 20 aur 100se100 se 110 dono same lambai dikhte hain. Log scale me equal percentage move barabar height leta hai — 10se10 se 20 (double) aur 1000se1000 se 2000 (double) dono ek jaisa dikhte hain. Kyunki hum paisa percent return me sochte hain (10% profit chhota ho ya bada stock, feel same hota hai), isliye long-term charts ke liye log scale hi sahi aur honest scale hai.

Maths simple hai: log scale par ek move ki height ln(P2/P1)\ln(P_2/P_1) hoti hai — sirf ratio pe depend karti hai, absolute price cancel ho jaati hai. Aur agar stock constant rate rr se compound ho raha hai (P=P0ertP = P_0 e^{rt}), to log chart par woh ek seedhi line ban jaata hai, jiska slope growth rate batata hai. Isliye log chart par straight line ka matlab hai "steady percent growth" — steepen hone ka matlab return badh raha hai.

Practical baat: short-term ya chhote range me log aur linear almost same lagte hain (kyunki ln(1+x)x\ln(1+x)\approx x). Lekin jab decades ka data ho ya price 10x-100x badh gaya ho, tab linear chart purana history dabaa deta hai aur recent bade numbers hi bade dikhte hain — yeh galat impression deta hai. Isliye investors long-term aur index charts hamesha log scale par dekhte hain, taaki har era ka percentage move fairly compare ho sake.

Yaad rakho: LINE = dollars, LOG = ratio. Trendlines, support-resistance, sab tab reliable hote hain jab scale sahi choose kiya ho. Compounding assets ke liye woh log scale hai.

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Connections