YEH kyun exist karta hai: Dow ne notice kiya ki stock averages repeatable patterns mein saath milkar move karte hain. Agar tum ek real trend ko random wiggle se alag kar sako, toh tum tide ke saath position le sakte ho aur ripples ki wajah se whipsaw hone se bach sakte ho.
Retracement range kyun? Ek healthy correction weak hands ko shake out karta hai lekin trend ko erase nahi karta. Agar ek "correction" do-tihaai se zyada wipe out kar de, toh yeh warning hai ki tide khud badal rahi ho sakti hai.
KYUN: Volume = conviction. Thin volume par price rise ka matlab hai ki kum log is par believe karte hain — yeh ek hollow move hai jo reverse hone wala hai. Volume ek secondary confirming tool hai, apne aap mein signal nahi.
Secondary correction ki typical retracement range?
Prior primary move ka one-third to two-thirds.
Primary bull trend ke teen phases?
Accumulation → Public participation → Distribution.
Dow Theory mein "confirmation" kya hai (Tenet 4)?
Ek valid signal ke liye Industrial aur Transport averages dono ko saath milkar new highs/lows banana chahiye.
Non-confirmation kya hota hai?
Ek average new high/low banata hai lekin doosra fail ho jaata hai — ek suspect, weak signal.
Volume bull trend ko kaise confirm karta hai (Tenet 5)?
Volume rallies par expand hota hai aur pullbacks par contract hota hai.
Trend kab khatam maana jaata hai (Tenet 6)?
Tabhi jab higher-high/higher-low (ya lower-high/lower-low) sequence clearly break ho aur confirm ho jaaye.
Dow ke editorials ko "Dow Theory" mein kisne organize kiya?
William Peter Hamilton aur Robert Rhea ne.
Kya Dow Theory leading hai ya lagging?
Lagging/confirming — yeh established trends identify karta hai, exact tops/bottoms nahi.
Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bachche ko samjhao
Samandro ki kalpana karo. Tide slowly ghanton mein aati hai — yeh market ki badi direction hai. Tide ke upar waves hain jo aage-peeche jaati hain, aur waves par tiny ripples hain. Agar tum sirf ek ripple ko wapas splash hote dekho, toh tum galti se sochoge ki poora samundar ja raha hai! Dow Theory tumhe tide dekhna sikhata hai. Aur yahan ek trick hai: Dow DO cheezein check karta hai — factory (cheezein banana) aur trucks (cheezein ship karna). Agar factories busy hain lekin trucks khaali hain, toh "boom" fake hai. Iske alawa, agar bahut log ek direction mein push kar rahe hain (big volume), toh move real hai; agar sirf kuch log push karein, toh fizzle ho jaayega.
