KYA ho raha hai: Ek bond tumhe unchangeable cash ka ek stream promise karta hai — coupons plus maturity par face value. Market ka required rate of return (yaani yield) woh discount rate hai jo tum us fixed cash par apply karte ho.
KYUN inverse hai: Price future fixed cash ka present value hai. Discounting ka matlab hai (1+y) terms se divide karna. Agar y badhta hai, toh har denominator badhta hai, isliye har present value shrinks ho jaati hai, toh total price girta hai. Upar wala cash (numerator) kabhi nahi badlta — sirf discount factor badlta hai.
Step 1 — Aaj ek future dollar kitna worth hai?
Agar tum y per period earn kar sakte ho, toh aaj ka $1 agli period mein (1+y) ban jaata hai. Toh agli period mein mila $1, aaj 1+y1 worth hai.
Ye step kyun? Ye discounting ka atom hai; baaki sab sirf atoms ka sum hai.
Step 2 — Har coupon ko discount karo.
Time t par coupon aaj (1+y)tC worth hai.
Step 3 — Face value ko discount karo (ek baar, time n par): (1+y)nF.
Step 4 — Sab ko add karo:
P=∑t=1n(1+y)tC+(1+y)nF
WHY ye inverse relationship prove karta hai: har term mein ydenominator mein hai. y badhao ⇒ har term gire ⇒ P gire. Mathematically, derivative hamesha negative hai:
dydP=−∑t=1n(1+y)t+1tC−(1+y)n+1nF<0
Kyunki har summand positive hai aur ek minus sign hai, dydP<0hamesha hoga. Price yield ki strictly decreasing function hai. Ye proof hai, sirf ek picture nahi.
Bond ki price mathematically kya hai? → uske fixed cash flows ka present value.
Price kyun girni chahiye jab yield rise kare? → y har denominator mein hai; bada y har present value ko shrink karta hai.
dP/dy ka sign? → hamesha negative.
Yield = coupon rate matlab price = ? → face value (par).
Yield drop kyun utna achha hai jitna equal yield rise bura hai? → convexity.
Recall Feynman: ek 12-saal ke bacche ko explain karo
Ek bond ek promise hai jo tumhe har hafte same pocket money aur end mein ek bada lump deta hai — chahe kuch bhi ho jaye. Agar tum decide karo ki tum apne deal par zyada paisa banana chahte ho, toh iska sirf ek tarika hai — promise ko aaj saste mein kharido. Toh "main zyada return chahta hun" ka matlab hamesha hai "main abhi kam pay karunga." Isliye price neeche jaati hai jab return (yield) upar jaata hai. Ye ek seesaw pe hain.
Bond prices aur yields inversely kyun move karte hain?
Price fixed cash flows ka present value hai; yield har denominator mein discount rate hai, toh higher yield har present value ko shrink karke price ko lower karta hai.
Kisi bhi standard bond ke liye dP/dy ka sign kya hai?